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>And the people who try to call the bubble early, as funny as it may be to make fun of them as is being done here, are usually the ones who have been through it
by dpark 10y ago
>And the people who try to call the bubble early, as funny as it may be to make fun of them as is being done here, are usually the ones who have been through it before, see it coming early, and try to warn everyone, even though no one ever listens (too busy enjoying the party!)
First, someone is always "calling the bubble". At the bottom of the housing market there were people screaming that it was going to keep dropping. People have been calling the tech market a bubble for literally decades. And conversely, there are always people claiming that we're nowhere near the top, even when we are. It's not useful to listen because the reality is that no one really knows. If you think we're the top of a bubble, then cash out and be happy with your superiority.
Second, what are you, as an employee, going to do if you think the tech bubble is going to pop? Sure, you should be saving, but you should do that anyway. You shouldn't be over invested in tech, but that's also always true. What meaningful steps should you take if you believe a tech bubble is about to pop that you should not take anyway?
- icebraining 10y agoIsn't it common in SV to accept jobs paying lower than market value in exchange for equity? Presumably, if one thinks the bubble is about to pop, they should avoid those jobs in detriment to offers from "safer" big companies.
- dpark 10y agoI think this is probably in the list of "think you (shouldn't) do anyway". If you're a normal employee with a small amount of equity, the reality is that you are overwhelmingly likely to not cash in big even in the event of a successful exit. If you're being paid in large part with equity, then you're probably being underpaid, not a great decision in any market. But you're right that knowing a bubble is about to pop might certainly dissuade many people from entering this kind of risky, lopsided employment deal.