6 ms·

This is an interesting problem. I'm not an expert, but I feel like a lot of socialism depends on accurate demand forecasting and in the past forecasting models

by aditya 17y ago

This is an interesting problem. I'm not an expert, but I feel like a lot of socialism depends on accurate demand forecasting and in the past forecasting models may have failed because of lack of real-time data collection and processing capabilities. As both collection (sensor networks) and processing (CPU) capabilities increase exponentially, perhaps the model can be made more accurate. Of course, I'm sure socialism as an economic system has other, deeper flaws :-)

jacobolus 17y ago
For any economic system in a country to function also depends on having your chief export (copper, something like 70 or 80 percent of Chilean exports at the time IIRC) not having its price dropped through the floor by a huge and powerful country dumping its strategic reserves on the market all at once, on keeping alive your top military brass instead of having them killed by car bombs and replaced with guys eager to overthrow your president, on maintaining order despite agitation stirred up by foreign spooks and their covertly funded proxy organizations, &c. &c. Chilean socialism may have been flawed, but it was never really given a fair shot. It is indeed interesting to speculate whether a command economy could function effectively given modern computer hardware and software.
- dualogy 17y ago
  "Chilean socialism may have been flawed, but it was never really given a fair shot." That's what all failed socialist countries claim (including my own, former East Germany). The basic principle of socialism, in all its flavours and colours, is based on the idea that some country, idea, person or group needs to be "given" (by whom?) a "fair" shot (well how much do the demanders of the chance "feel" is "fair" and do the givers have a say in it?). What's interesting is that you never need to ask for chances, favours or a fair shot if you have something very appealing to offer and can point out its benefits (sometimes this is called marketing) in a convincing manner. This site alone is an example of many.
  - jacobolus 17y ago
    Okay. My point is only that the people you need to convince, in the specific case of cold-war-era governments, are not your own citizens, but rather the hard-ass anticommunists in the U.S. government, war criminals like Kissinger et al. Amusingly enough, if you were a military junta like Alvarado’s in Peru in ~1970, even a leftist military junta, you could pretty much get away with attempted agrarian reform, expropriation of foreign assets, nationalization of major industries, etc., as long as you agreed to fight against isolated communist guerillas in the jungle, and the US would leave you alone. If you were a democratically elected moderate like Belaundé, they’d cut off aid and impose sanctions. If you were a center-left european-style socialist like Allende in Chilé, they’d go all out to destroy your government. Former East Germany didn't work out for substantially different reasons than Chile. Neither excuse making nor specific domestic policy was really the cause in either case though. Basically, the "givers", other states, should, according to commonly accepted international laws and norms, only intervene in the operation of other sovereign states in certain limited circumstances, such as for self defense, etc. Deciding you don't like the leaders they elect, even before those leaders have done anything, doesn't cut it as a rationale for toppling a foreign government.
    - cturner 17y ago
      Allende sought to to nationalise banking and redistribute land. That's not what people think of as centre-left. European socialists (outside of Italy where everyone is mad) are generally solid on constitutional matters, including separation of powers. Whereas Allende created the crisis by trying to steamroll the supreme court on separation of powers.
      - jacobolus 17y ago
        Western Europe is dramatically less economically centralized than any part of Latin America, and so there’s much more balance between the influence of the richest part of the society and the rest. (Which is to say, egalitarian policies are much less politically explosive.) Allende’s politics were much closer to western European socialists than to say, Mao or Lenin. Maybe “center left” is a bad label for being ambiguous; the point is that his goal was not some kind of communist utopia with a completely centrally planned government, &c. &c. In places where a tiny minority have a chokehold on a country's economy, land reform is a pretty essential prerequisite to general political and social equality. General MacArthur carried out massive land reform in Japan in the late 40s, and few people would call him a leftist, &c. * * * But all of that is getting away from the central point, which is that thinking that it was better for U.S. long-term interests to overthrow the government, without any legitimate justification, and replace it with a brutal fascist police state, is the height of hubris, and frankly despicable.
ovi256 17y ago
Of course, I'm sure socialism as an economic system has other, deeper flaws :-) Wow, such political correctness, it brings tears to my eyes. :-)
- plesn 17y ago
  Articles talks about "planned economy". It should even precise "planned central economy". The deep flaw in it is generally that citizens are not included in the loop of doing the plan ! Disclaimer: capitalism is also a planned economy (no there's no army of monkey deciding what to do), and at the top level (US government/financial circles/big companies/media networks) it is even mostly centrally planned... So: same problem...
  - 1010011010 17y ago
    If an economy is centrally planned at the top level... it's not capitalist.
    - plesn 17y ago
      "Actual capitalism" is as far from "capitalism" as "actual communism" is from "communism"...
      - rdtsc 17y ago
        One of the shortest most insightful comments of the day.
dantheman 17y ago
This short essay from the 1920's lays out the fundamental flaws of trying to do economic calculations in the socialist state: Economic Calculation In The Socialist Commonwealth: http://mises.org/econcalc.asp http://mises.org/econcalc.asp
- jacoblyles 17y ago
  I'm also a big fan of Hayek's "The Use of Knowledge in Society" which explains how a capitalist system, rather than being "unplanned" as its critics often claim, actually uses decentralized planning that makes more efficient use of knowledge at all levels of society. http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/hykKnw1.html http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/hykKnw1.html

by aditya 17y ago

jacobolus 17y ago

For any economic system in a country to function also depends on having your chief export (copper, something like 70 or 80 percent of Chilean exports at the time IIRC) not having its price dropped through the floor by a huge and powerful country dumping its strategic reserves on the market all at once, on keeping alive your top military brass instead of having them killed by car bombs and replaced with guys eager to overthrow your president, on maintaining order despite agitation stirred up by foreign spooks and their covertly funded proxy organizations, &c. &c. Chilean socialism may have been flawed, but it was never really given a fair shot. It is indeed interesting to speculate whether a command economy could function effectively given modern computer hardware and software.

dualogy 17y ago
"Chilean socialism may have been flawed, but it was never really given a fair shot." That's what all failed socialist countries claim (including my own, former East Germany). The basic principle of socialism, in all its flavours and colours, is based on the idea that some country, idea, person or group needs to be "given" (by whom?) a "fair" shot (well how much do the demanders of the chance "feel" is "fair" and do the givers have a say in it?). What's interesting is that you never need to ask for chances, favours or a fair shot if you have something very appealing to offer and can point out its benefits (sometimes this is called marketing) in a convincing manner. This site alone is an example of many.
- jacobolus 17y ago
  Okay. My point is only that the people you need to convince, in the specific case of cold-war-era governments, are not your own citizens, but rather the hard-ass anticommunists in the U.S. government, war criminals like Kissinger et al. Amusingly enough, if you were a military junta like Alvarado’s in Peru in ~1970, even a leftist military junta, you could pretty much get away with attempted agrarian reform, expropriation of foreign assets, nationalization of major industries, etc., as long as you agreed to fight against isolated communist guerillas in the jungle, and the US would leave you alone. If you were a democratically elected moderate like Belaundé, they’d cut off aid and impose sanctions. If you were a center-left european-style socialist like Allende in Chilé, they’d go all out to destroy your government. Former East Germany didn't work out for substantially different reasons than Chile. Neither excuse making nor specific domestic policy was really the cause in either case though. Basically, the "givers", other states, should, according to commonly accepted international laws and norms, only intervene in the operation of other sovereign states in certain limited circumstances, such as for self defense, etc. Deciding you don't like the leaders they elect, even before those leaders have done anything, doesn't cut it as a rationale for toppling a foreign government.
  - cturner 17y ago
    Allende sought to to nationalise banking and redistribute land. That's not what people think of as centre-left. European socialists (outside of Italy where everyone is mad) are generally solid on constitutional matters, including separation of powers. Whereas Allende created the crisis by trying to steamroll the supreme court on separation of powers.
    - jacobolus 17y ago
      Western Europe is dramatically less economically centralized than any part of Latin America, and so there’s much more balance between the influence of the richest part of the society and the rest. (Which is to say, egalitarian policies are much less politically explosive.) Allende’s politics were much closer to western European socialists than to say, Mao or Lenin. Maybe “center left” is a bad label for being ambiguous; the point is that his goal was not some kind of communist utopia with a completely centrally planned government, &c. &c. In places where a tiny minority have a chokehold on a country's economy, land reform is a pretty essential prerequisite to general political and social equality. General MacArthur carried out massive land reform in Japan in the late 40s, and few people would call him a leftist, &c. * * * But all of that is getting away from the central point, which is that thinking that it was better for U.S. long-term interests to overthrow the government, without any legitimate justification, and replace it with a brutal fascist police state, is the height of hubris, and frankly despicable.

ovi256 17y ago

Of course, I'm sure socialism as an economic system has other, deeper flaws :-) Wow, such political correctness, it brings tears to my eyes. :-)

plesn 17y ago
Articles talks about "planned economy". It should even precise "planned central economy". The deep flaw in it is generally that citizens are not included in the loop of doing the plan ! Disclaimer: capitalism is also a planned economy (no there's no army of monkey deciding what to do), and at the top level (US government/financial circles/big companies/media networks) it is even mostly centrally planned... So: same problem...
- 1010011010 17y ago
  If an economy is centrally planned at the top level... it's not capitalist.
  - plesn 17y ago
    "Actual capitalism" is as far from "capitalism" as "actual communism" is from "communism"...
    - rdtsc 17y ago
      One of the shortest most insightful comments of the day.

dantheman 17y ago

This short essay from the 1920's lays out the fundamental flaws of trying to do economic calculations in the socialist state: Economic Calculation In The Socialist Commonwealth: http://mises.org/econcalc.asp http://mises.org/econcalc.asp

jacoblyles 17y ago
I'm also a big fan of Hayek's "The Use of Knowledge in Society" which explains how a capitalist system, rather than being "unplanned" as its critics often claim, actually uses decentralized planning that makes more efficient use of knowledge at all levels of society. http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/hykKnw1.html http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/hykKnw1.html