5 ms·

“Everyone’s entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.” Smugness is certainly a fact, but so is that brexit will leave the UK economically worse o

by rue 10y ago

“Everyone’s entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.” Smugness is certainly a fact, but so is that brexit will leave the UK economically worse off in pretty much all respects. Especially the poor.

coldtea 10y ago
>Smugness is certainly a fact, but so is that brexit will leave the UK economically worse off in pretty much all respects. Especially the poor. Citation needed. But not those made-up by economists, pundits and bureaucrats making money by being pro-EU and working within EU organization and with EC money...
- MagnumOpus 10y ago
  It's like global warming. You can always find a crackpot who has a contrary opinion, but the fact that every single "neutral" economist apart from those with a monetary interest in Brexit agrees is a pretty strong indication - from the IMF over US investment banks to the Chinese government and the UK statistics authority - not to speak of stock markets and FX markets which sell off everytime the risk of Brexit rises, and rally when the risk of Brexit falls. So people put their money where their mouth is.
  - coldtea 10y ago
    I don't really believe there are neutral economists. Not many in any case. Almost all economists are involved with government's, policy decisions, and financial institutions and interests. And they comingle with people in power and others with large interests all the time. It's like having a computer science professor in "databases" that's also a stakeholder in MongoDB. >which sell off everytime the risk of Brexit rises, and rally when the risk of Brexit falls. So people put their money where their mouth is. That's only short term assets they play with -- to make a quick buck on the uncertainty before and after a Brexit--, it doesn't show anything with regards to the medium- and long-term prospects of a Brexit.
  - ConfuciusSay02 10y ago
    The top American "neutral" economists told us that everything was great in the real estate market right before 2008. Sterling is up against USD since March. Besides, a low pound can be good for exports/manufacturing. The idea that if the pound drops against the USD it's categorically "bad" is untrue and simplistic. When David Cameron was campaigning, he said he'd be glad to have a referendum and he thought that a Brexit might actually be better for the UK. Thanks to that he was voted in with a majority, and promptly changed his tune to saying a Brexit would be lead to a catastrophe. Funny how he changed his mind so quickly. Also funny how the "neutral" economists didn't pipe up to correct Cameron during the election.
    - dragonwriter 10y ago
      > The top American "neutral" economists told us that everything was great in the real estate market right before 2008. The US housing bubble collapse was widely and publicly predicted by leading independent (that is, those not working for banks or government) economists of every political stripe for many years before the collapse.
      - ConfuciusSay02 10y ago
        Those independent economists were not the ones being trotted out on the media talk shows back then, and there's no reason to think the independent economists would be trotted out now for this Brexit debate.
        dragonwriter 10y ago
        > Those independent economists were not the ones being trotted out on the media talk shows back then They were widely reported in major news media, including appearances on "media talk shows".
        ConfuciusSay02 10y ago
        Widely reported? It was just the opposite.
  - kristianc 10y ago
    Worth bearing in mind that most of those "neutral" economists also said it would be a great idea for the UK to join the Euro.
gozur88 10y ago
No, that is not a fact at all. It's a guess. A projection. You have no idea what the EU is going to look like in five years, let alone twenty or thirty.

by rue 10y ago

coldtea 10y ago

>Smugness is certainly a fact, but so is that brexit will leave the UK economically worse off in pretty much all respects. Especially the poor. Citation needed. But not those made-up by economists, pundits and bureaucrats making money by being pro-EU and working within EU organization and with EC money...

MagnumOpus 10y ago
It's like global warming. You can always find a crackpot who has a contrary opinion, but the fact that every single "neutral" economist apart from those with a monetary interest in Brexit agrees is a pretty strong indication - from the IMF over US investment banks to the Chinese government and the UK statistics authority - not to speak of stock markets and FX markets which sell off everytime the risk of Brexit rises, and rally when the risk of Brexit falls. So people put their money where their mouth is.
- coldtea 10y ago
  I don't really believe there are neutral economists. Not many in any case. Almost all economists are involved with government's, policy decisions, and financial institutions and interests. And they comingle with people in power and others with large interests all the time. It's like having a computer science professor in "databases" that's also a stakeholder in MongoDB. >which sell off everytime the risk of Brexit rises, and rally when the risk of Brexit falls. So people put their money where their mouth is. That's only short term assets they play with -- to make a quick buck on the uncertainty before and after a Brexit--, it doesn't show anything with regards to the medium- and long-term prospects of a Brexit.
- ConfuciusSay02 10y ago
  The top American "neutral" economists told us that everything was great in the real estate market right before 2008. Sterling is up against USD since March. Besides, a low pound can be good for exports/manufacturing. The idea that if the pound drops against the USD it's categorically "bad" is untrue and simplistic. When David Cameron was campaigning, he said he'd be glad to have a referendum and he thought that a Brexit might actually be better for the UK. Thanks to that he was voted in with a majority, and promptly changed his tune to saying a Brexit would be lead to a catastrophe. Funny how he changed his mind so quickly. Also funny how the "neutral" economists didn't pipe up to correct Cameron during the election.
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    > The top American "neutral" economists told us that everything was great in the real estate market right before 2008. The US housing bubble collapse was widely and publicly predicted by leading independent (that is, those not working for banks or government) economists of every political stripe for many years before the collapse.
    - ConfuciusSay02 10y ago
      Those independent economists were not the ones being trotted out on the media talk shows back then, and there's no reason to think the independent economists would be trotted out now for this Brexit debate.
      - dragonwriter 10y ago
        > Those independent economists were not the ones being trotted out on the media talk shows back then They were widely reported in major news media, including appearances on "media talk shows".
        ConfuciusSay02 10y ago
        Widely reported? It was just the opposite.
- kristianc 10y ago
  Worth bearing in mind that most of those "neutral" economists also said it would be a great idea for the UK to join the Euro.

gozur88 10y ago

No, that is not a fact at all. It's a guess. A projection. You have no idea what the EU is going to look like in five years, let alone twenty or thirty.