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the iPhone will surely not go the way of the iPod. Apple’s “pocket computer” is more likely to follow the trajectory of the Macintosh: It will continue to take

the iPhone will surely not go the way of the iPod. Apple’s “pocket computer” is more likely to follow the trajectory of the Macintosh: It will continue to take a significant but slowly growing share of the market, while pocketing a large share of the profits. Apple's market share continues to slide, as his own graph shows. If he expects Apple's market share to grow he should explain why. So far all the indicators point the other way.

flyinglizard 10y ago
I think that a definitive conclusion on Apple's stand in the market calls for more elaborate analysis of the data. For example, if the majority of the growth in the overall mobile market is attributed to low cost smartphones, it'd be likely for Apple to miss on that. AFAIK, Apple doesn't lose customers, it just doesn't gain as many as the overall market - and it still outpeforms the other mobile makers on revenues/profit by a huge margin.
jsjohnst 10y ago
Are we looking at the same article? 1) he shows no graph depicting anything to do with market share, let alone one showing it sliding. There's two graphs, one showing a dip in sales volume, another showing a dip in overall smartphone buying. 2) he did explain why he thought that, near the end of the article
- cageface 10y ago
  iPhone sales are slowing, Android sales are not: http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-trends/ http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-tre... So market share is declining. The reasons he gives for Apple's market share to increase are not new. They have been losing ground despite the conditions he describes. If we wants to argue that Apple is going to reverse this trend he needs to give new reasons.
  - gek0gk0 10y ago
    To date, this has been offset by the fact that iOS devices have much longer average lives than Android devices, and are routinely resold one or more times.
  - jsjohnst 10y ago
    Apple was a very successful company selling Macs, with their low market share, I personally feel the same can be said with iOS too. Apple has proven you don't need majority market share to still have a controlling position in the market.
    - cageface 10y ago
      That may be but that's not the claim made in the original article. He claimed that iOS market share would increase, which hasn't been the case for a while now, so it demands some justification.
      - jsjohnst 10y ago
        He did offer justification. While I may not agree with it completely (and it sounds like you don't either), our disagreement doesn't negate his own personal opinion.
- lern_too_spel 10y ago
  And it was a horrible explanation. MacBooks are functionally superior to Netbooks. That is not the same for iPhones. Phones from other manufacturers that cost significantly less do significantly more than iPhones do. That is why sales volume is shrinking in a growing market.

flyinglizard 10y ago

I think that a definitive conclusion on Apple's stand in the market calls for more elaborate analysis of the data. For example, if the majority of the growth in the overall mobile market is attributed to low cost smartphones, it'd be likely for Apple to miss on that. AFAIK, Apple doesn't lose customers, it just doesn't gain as many as the overall market - and it still outpeforms the other mobile makers on revenues/profit by a huge margin.

jsjohnst 10y ago

Are we looking at the same article? 1) he shows no graph depicting anything to do with market share, let alone one showing it sliding. There's two graphs, one showing a dip in sales volume, another showing a dip in overall smartphone buying. 2) he did explain why he thought that, near the end of the article

cageface 10y ago
iPhone sales are slowing, Android sales are not: http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-trends/ http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-tre... So market share is declining. The reasons he gives for Apple's market share to increase are not new. They have been losing ground despite the conditions he describes. If we wants to argue that Apple is going to reverse this trend he needs to give new reasons.
- gek0gk0 10y ago
  To date, this has been offset by the fact that iOS devices have much longer average lives than Android devices, and are routinely resold one or more times.
- jsjohnst 10y ago
  Apple was a very successful company selling Macs, with their low market share, I personally feel the same can be said with iOS too. Apple has proven you don't need majority market share to still have a controlling position in the market.
  - cageface 10y ago
    That may be but that's not the claim made in the original article. He claimed that iOS market share would increase, which hasn't been the case for a while now, so it demands some justification.
    - jsjohnst 10y ago
      He did offer justification. While I may not agree with it completely (and it sounds like you don't either), our disagreement doesn't negate his own personal opinion.
lern_too_spel 10y ago
And it was a horrible explanation. MacBooks are functionally superior to Netbooks. That is not the same for iPhones. Phones from other manufacturers that cost significantly less do significantly more than iPhones do. That is why sales volume is shrinking in a growing market.