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The most likely reason that nobody seems to be out there is the great filter. The author asks if our civilisation will last millenia or millions of years - but

The most likely reason that nobody seems to be out there is the great filter. The author asks if our civilisation will last millenia or millions of years - but I think a more apt scale would be decades or centuries. It just seems pretty obvious that we have an ever increasing set of opportunities to extinct ourselves, and therefore the probability of a civilisation ending disaster only grows. All the aliens either blew themselves up, starved, or are the kind of incredibly boring, mind-numblingly conservative people you wouldn't invite to a local cluster cocktail party. Oh, either that or civilisations tend to disappear up their own simhole.

sevenless 10y ago
The Doomsday Argument implies we've got centuries or less left. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument
- madaxe_again 10y ago
  Oh, I think we've decades or years rather than centuries. We always underestimate exponential growth. That's OK, at least it'll make for an interesting existence.
XorNot 10y ago
Conversely, by 2025 there might be living humans on Mars (if Elon Musk gets his way). And while that's not enough to form the basis of a backup civilization, I'm somewhat more interested in the effect on global zeitgeist it's likely to have. The feeling of the times is, I feel, an underestimated factor in how democracies pick their priorities - and the early 21st century has been very down on itself trying to figure out practical, post-conflict economic realities.
- kirykl 10y ago
  The great filter could well be going from single to multi planetary, on a single planet our survival (quite) long term is zero.
- sangnoir 10y ago
  > And while that's not enough to form the basis of a backup civilization Or that might accelerate the end of civilization due to our inherent tribalism - the US isn't quite a backup of Europe as a 16th century European would have imagined. Who is to say there won't be a Planetary Mutually Assured Destruction? The Expanse (books and TV series) explores some themes around planetary identity & politics in a fictional future where Mars and the outer solar system has been colonized and Earth is seen as a meddling 'old country' by some.

sevenless 10y ago

The Doomsday Argument implies we've got centuries or less left. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument

madaxe_again 10y ago
Oh, I think we've decades or years rather than centuries. We always underestimate exponential growth. That's OK, at least it'll make for an interesting existence.

XorNot 10y ago

Conversely, by 2025 there might be living humans on Mars (if Elon Musk gets his way). And while that's not enough to form the basis of a backup civilization, I'm somewhat more interested in the effect on global zeitgeist it's likely to have. The feeling of the times is, I feel, an underestimated factor in how democracies pick their priorities - and the early 21st century has been very down on itself trying to figure out practical, post-conflict economic realities.

kirykl 10y ago
The great filter could well be going from single to multi planetary, on a single planet our survival (quite) long term is zero.
sangnoir 10y ago
> And while that's not enough to form the basis of a backup civilization Or that might accelerate the end of civilization due to our inherent tribalism - the US isn't quite a backup of Europe as a 16th century European would have imagined. Who is to say there won't be a Planetary Mutually Assured Destruction? The Expanse (books and TV series) explores some themes around planetary identity & politics in a fictional future where Mars and the outer solar system has been colonized and Earth is seen as a meddling 'old country' by some.