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This is an interesting question. I'm actually not sure that there is an unlimited amount of R&D or interesting engineering work to go around. Just to be clear
by geebee 10y ago
This is an interesting question. I'm actually not sure that there is an unlimited amount of R&D or interesting engineering work to go around.
Just to be clear, I'm not convinced there isn't, either, I just think it's an interesting enough thesis that I'm willing to consider it (sorry for no cite, I have read interesting discussions of this point, may google around for them later).
I think the basic thesis boils down to this - there are, at any given moment, an "unlimited" number of scientific and technical tasks required to solve those deep problems you mentioned. However, there are (this is a thesis, not a conclusion) a limited number of those problems that can be worked on right now. Those problems need to be solved before the next set can be solved.
Now, if you have 10 research teams working on these problems, you have a better chance of solving them in a reasonable amount of time than if only 1 research team is working on them. 100 is better than 10. 1000 is better than 100... but at some point, you're maxed out on the number of research positions that can contribute effectively. Out of 1000, 100 will take a promising approach, 10 will get it right, and... 1 will solve the problem a bit faster than the other 9. There's a point at which you hit diminishing returns.
Is this true? (and btw, I'm constructing some of this thesis myself, as you can probably tell, I don't think I've read it in quite this form before). Is it true-ish?
I'm not really sure. I'm not sure it matters for the moment, because I don't think our budget for R&D and high value engineering work, or our educational systems to develop talent, are anywhere close to a point where we should be discussing whether we're reaching diminishing returns to scale.
But is there a theoretical point at which throwing more genius at problems won't make a difference in how quickly we progress? The question interests me, in an abstract way.