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It bothers me people proclaim the importance of luck to successful startups. Usually it is either sour grapes at someone else's success, or conversely, an act

It bothers me people proclaim the importance of luck to successful startups. Usually it is either sour grapes at someone else's success, or conversely, an act humility from someone who is successful. But in either case I don't find it to be a useful sentiment. The fact is that as entrepreneurs we have agency to make decisions, and we each have uniquely imperfect information on which to base those decisions. "Luck" is nothing more than this universal phenomenon of imperfect information. What might be luck for one person might not be for another. At the end of the day, lucky or not, we are all tossed about by the whims of fortune. That should not blunt our drive, or check our decisions, or detract from our accomplishments. Sincerely acknowledging luck is an admirably humble thing to say in a press conference, but luck as a concept will not help you take the best action for the future.

tanker 10y ago
I like the way Richard Hamming stated a similar sentiment: " I claim that luck will not cover everything. And I will cite Pasteur who said, ``Luck favors the prepared mind.'' And I think that says it the way I believe it. There is indeed an element of luck, and no, there isn't. The prepared mind sooner or later finds something important and does it. So yes, it is luck. The particular thing you do is luck, but that you do something is not." Full Talk: http://blog.samaltman.com/you-and-your-research http://blog.samaltman.com/you-and-your-research
Retra 10y ago
If your understanding of success is "be an entrepreneur who makes decisions", then there is no luck involved. But that is not most entrepreneurs' understanding of success. So this isn't about making decisions, it's about having those decisions be accepted and rewarded by a reactionary and fickle culture. And that takes a lot of luck.

tanker 10y ago

I like the way Richard Hamming stated a similar sentiment: " I claim that luck will not cover everything. And I will cite Pasteur who said, ``Luck favors the prepared mind.'' And I think that says it the way I believe it. There is indeed an element of luck, and no, there isn't. The prepared mind sooner or later finds something important and does it. So yes, it is luck. The particular thing you do is luck, but that you do something is not." Full Talk: http://blog.samaltman.com/you-and-your-research http://blog.samaltman.com/you-and-your-research

Retra 10y ago

If your understanding of success is "be an entrepreneur who makes decisions", then there is no luck involved. But that is not most entrepreneurs' understanding of success. So this isn't about making decisions, it's about having those decisions be accepted and rewarded by a reactionary and fickle culture. And that takes a lot of luck.