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That analysis is sort of ridiculous. On the numerator you're using a number much higher than the number of cars Tesla has ever produced in a year. On the deno
by honkhonkpants 10y ago
That analysis is sort of ridiculous. On the numerator you're using a number much higher than the number of cars Tesla has ever produced in a year. On the denominator you're using a years-old size of a rapidly growing market for batteries.
- mikeash 10y agoHow much do you think the industry has grown since 2013? How much do you think it will grow by 2018? Even if each one is a doubling, Tesla's part is pretty significant.
- honkhonkpants 10y agoIt's tough to get hard data but a 20-30% CAGR from 2013 to the present time seems like a reasonable guess.
- mikeash 10y agoSounds reasonable to me as well. I won't claim to have great numbers, just trying to compare the rough magnitudes.
- shawn-furyan 10y agoHow do you think that decisions are made under uncertainty? You can't always wait until you have very solid numbers to come up with an analysis. It's not "ridiculous" to come up with an order of magnitude estimate when better information is unavailable, it's a critical step in solving new problems. A more productive criticism would have been to offer an improvement, rather than to just point to the imperfections in an attempt to estimate the future impact of a new technology. edit: added second paragraph
- honkhonkpants 10y agoOK, but in 2016 we don't have to guess how many cars Tesla built in 2015. It's historical fact.
- shawn-furyan 10y agoWhat is it? You could actually improve the estimate rather than /just/ pointing out that it has flaws. And your original criticism was vague. At least this one moves things forward. After a quick Google search, the number of vehicles Tesla sold in 2015 does in fact seem to be a bit uncertain. It seems they sold over 50,000 vehicles, but I've not found a more precise number, in a few minutes of looking. Sales from previous years seem to be: 2012 - 2,650 2013 - 22,477 2014 - 31,655 2015- ~50,000 though I got these numbers from a quora post, so take them with an adequately large dose of salt. edit: added google findings, tweaked wording to be more specific
- honkhonkpants 10y agoThere is no reason to guess at these numbers OR to Google for other people's guesses. The sales figures to 5 significant digits are in Tesla's 10-K report. For example: During 2015, we achieved significant efficiencies in Model S production and produced 14,037 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2015. We began production of Model X in the third quarter of 2015. We plan to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new Model S and Model X vehicles in 2016.
- shawn-furyan 10y agoSo... we're about where we were at with the very first estimate... Precision isn't particularly helpful for this sort of rough projection. Which highlights that your original criticism wasn't particularly productive. clarification: In claiming that we're about where we started, I'm saying that a 10-20% correction doesn't significantly impact a rough order of magnitude estimation. The estimate was in the precision bounds of its stated goal. Therefore the estimate wasn't "ridiculous" at all, or at least, you haven't shown that it was.
- honkhonkpants 10y agoThat's not why I thought it was ridiculous. I said it was ridiculous for using projected 2016 Tesla production and dividing that by actual 2013 battery production, when battery production is rapidly expanding. You either have to use 2016 projected battery production on the denominator, or actual 2013 Tesla production (a number very close to zero) on the numerator.