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caution. 1. a tesla accessory site. 2. the report is full of projections and hard to understand what is wishful and what is not. 3. GM: $145/kw Oct 2015 - Tesla

by sremani 10y ago

caution. 1. a tesla accessory site. 2. the report is full of projections and hard to understand what is wishful and what is not. 3. GM: $145/kw Oct 2015 - Tesla $100/kw in 2020, how is Tesla killing it?

ethbro 10y ago
Agree it's a puff piece, but the full quote you took that from is "General Motors announced that battery costs for its 2016 Chevrolet Bolt had fallen to USD 145/kWh by October 2015, and that it hopes to reduce costs below the USD 100/kWh mark by 2022 (GM, 2015, EV Obsession, 2015). The electric car manufacturer Tesla aims to break the USD 100/kWh mark by 2020 (HybridCARS, 2015)." Also, in reading some of the background on the numbers, journalists seem to be failing (surprise!) to distinguish between $/kWh per battery cell vs battery pack.
- petra 10y ago
  Musk isn't that great at predicting when will the future happen(he's better at predicting general trends), probably partially because stock pumping PR is critical to his biz.
  - ethbro 10y ago
    To some extent stock pumping PR funds Tesla, which in turn provides them easier capital for funding the GigaFactory, which rationalizes the PR. It's only Theranos if you don't deliver.
    - nickik 10y ago
      That's sort of exactly how it is supposed to work.
    - xenadu02 10y ago
      > It's only Theranos if you don't deliver. Indeed; last time I checked, Tesla is shipping working cars and SpaceX is successfully putting satellites into orbit/delivering supplies to the ISS.
      - erikpukinskis 10y ago
        Not just shipping working cars, but consistently growing production by 40%+ per year.
Nokinside 10y ago
Tesla needs more than just steady supply of cheap batteries to make it. As a company it's boom or bust. Musk is extremely bold. Many investors forget that bold=risk. 1. Aggressive cash-negative growth. Tesla is not going to make profits with Model 3. Currently Tesla needs more capital to finance future losses instead of than future returns. Musk has wooed many investors that may not be as patient as they should. Musk estimates that Tesla will make profit in 2020, but it's not looking good. 2. No sustainable competitive advantage in technology. Most of the important intellectual property is owned by Panasonic. Cars are nice and different, but they have suffered from reliability problems. Tesla's warranty costs are also higher than its competitors ($2,000 in warranty accruals and $1,000 on repairs per vehicle in last year). 3. Tesla is small manufacturer and it has fragile and stretched supply chain (Tesla manufactures tens of thousands of cars, competitors manufacture millions). Subcontractors are not going to squeeze their profit margins for Tesla. Even if his dream "all cars will be electric" will become true, Tesla as a company is not necessarily the winning bet.
synaesthesisx 10y ago
Purely speculating here, but once the gigafactory is operational they'll unveil the massive trick up their sleeve - Musk will announce new custom cells based on high density sodium-ion technology. Tesla will become a world leader as an energy company rather than an automative one.
- dave1619 10y ago
  Is this speculation? Or is it grounded in some facts?
- patrickk 10y ago
  Musk has said before they monitor battery developments, but that he hasn't seen anything to catch his eye so far. Even Musk would be insane to switch the Gigafactory to a new, unproven battery chemistry. Plus, sodium-ion batteries are heavier than lithium-ion, so they're (probably) unsuitable for cars. Possible for Powerwalls though perhaps or a hypothetical Tesla truck where weight is less of a consideration.

by sremani 10y ago

ethbro 10y ago

Agree it's a puff piece, but the full quote you took that from is "General Motors announced that battery costs for its 2016 Chevrolet Bolt had fallen to USD 145/kWh by October 2015, and that it hopes to reduce costs below the USD 100/kWh mark by 2022 (GM, 2015, EV Obsession, 2015). The electric car manufacturer Tesla aims to break the USD 100/kWh mark by 2020 (HybridCARS, 2015)." Also, in reading some of the background on the numbers, journalists seem to be failing (surprise!) to distinguish between $/kWh per battery cell vs battery pack.

petra 10y ago
Musk isn't that great at predicting when will the future happen(he's better at predicting general trends), probably partially because stock pumping PR is critical to his biz.
- ethbro 10y ago
  To some extent stock pumping PR funds Tesla, which in turn provides them easier capital for funding the GigaFactory, which rationalizes the PR. It's only Theranos if you don't deliver.
  - nickik 10y ago
    That's sort of exactly how it is supposed to work.
  - xenadu02 10y ago
    > It's only Theranos if you don't deliver. Indeed; last time I checked, Tesla is shipping working cars and SpaceX is successfully putting satellites into orbit/delivering supplies to the ISS.
    - erikpukinskis 10y ago
      Not just shipping working cars, but consistently growing production by 40%+ per year.

Nokinside 10y ago

Tesla needs more than just steady supply of cheap batteries to make it. As a company it's boom or bust. Musk is extremely bold. Many investors forget that bold=risk. 1. Aggressive cash-negative growth. Tesla is not going to make profits with Model 3. Currently Tesla needs more capital to finance future losses instead of than future returns. Musk has wooed many investors that may not be as patient as they should. Musk estimates that Tesla will make profit in 2020, but it's not looking good. 2. No sustainable competitive advantage in technology. Most of the important intellectual property is owned by Panasonic. Cars are nice and different, but they have suffered from reliability problems. Tesla's warranty costs are also higher than its competitors ($2,000 in warranty accruals and $1,000 on repairs per vehicle in last year). 3. Tesla is small manufacturer and it has fragile and stretched supply chain (Tesla manufactures tens of thousands of cars, competitors manufacture millions). Subcontractors are not going to squeeze their profit margins for Tesla. Even if his dream "all cars will be electric" will become true, Tesla as a company is not necessarily the winning bet.

synaesthesisx 10y ago

Purely speculating here, but once the gigafactory is operational they'll unveil the massive trick up their sleeve - Musk will announce new custom cells based on high density sodium-ion technology. Tesla will become a world leader as an energy company rather than an automative one.

dave1619 10y ago
Is this speculation? Or is it grounded in some facts?
patrickk 10y ago
Musk has said before they monitor battery developments, but that he hasn't seen anything to catch his eye so far. Even Musk would be insane to switch the Gigafactory to a new, unproven battery chemistry. Plus, sodium-ion batteries are heavier than lithium-ion, so they're (probably) unsuitable for cars. Possible for Powerwalls though perhaps or a hypothetical Tesla truck where weight is less of a consideration.