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According to this essay, about 3% of men will get falsely accused of rape in their lifetime: http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/17/lies-damned-lies-and-social-me

According to this essay, about 3% of men will get falsely accused of rape in their lifetime: http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/17/lies-damned-lies-and-social-media-part-5-of-∞/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/17/lies-damned-lies-and-so... The real number is impossible to determine, but is uncomfortably high.

hackuser 10y ago
With due respect, this is a politically charged issue so I'm dubious of trusting random people, such as the author of that article. Are there more established sources around on this issue?
- nickpsecurity 10y ago
  Google "rape conviction overturned DNA evidence." Happens too much.
  - tptacek 10y ago
    There were 67,000+ sexual assault convictions in 2012, and 18 overturned convictions. Would you like that as a percentage? That's 0.02%.
    - nickpsecurity 10y ago
      Exactly. Convictions through the roof. That's why they should take it to court. Far as overturned, do you have data on how many got to prove something with DNA? Or conviction rate without it?
      - tptacek 10y ago
        You just suggested, in the comment I replied to, that there were significant numbers of overturned rape convictions. There are not. "Exactly"?
        nickpsecurity 10y ago
        Maybe I remembered wrong. I retract that one for now. I'll reinvestigate the topic later on.
      - nikcub 10y ago
        RAINN say[0], based on DOJ/FBI data, that ~30% of rapes get reported and only ~4% lead to a conviction Ridiculously low rate of conviction [0] https://rainn.org/get-information/statistics/reporting-rates https://rainn.org/get-information/statistics/reporting-rates
    - tzs 10y ago
      Shouldn't the comparison be with the number of rape convictions, not the number of sexual assault convictions, since he was bringing up the number of DNA overturned rape convictions? I've not been able to find the number of rape convictions in 2012. I found a claim of 85000 rapes in 2012 [1], and claims that 3-10% of rapes lead to a conviction. If one really wanted to do this right, it would be necessary to look at what fraction of those who are convicted and claim they are innocent are able to get a retroactive DNA test on the evidence, and also take into account that such testing often comes after years in prison and so the comparison should be taking into account the rape convictions in the year that someone was sentenced, not the year they their conviction was overturned. Considering that I was not even able to find a good number on the number of convictions by year, though, I have no hope of reasonably finding the information necessary for the aforementioned analysis. I've been noticing this kind of thing (not being able to find some statistics that I would have expected to be trivially findable in an intuitively obvious way by the most casual searcher) happening quite a lot over the last couple of years, and it puzzles me. [1] http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
- throwaway76543 10y ago
  Scott Alexander cited his sources. Perhaps read the article and follow up on them?
  - hackuser 10y ago
    Generally a fair statement, but not always realistic: 1) I simply don't have time to read the citations of everything I read (and then check the citations' citations). 2) Even with a solid factual basis, it's easy to twist and spin and fool people who lack expertise in the field. For example, the author could simply omit essential facts.
espadrine 10y ago
May I argue that it is uncomfortably low? The estimated percentage of women that are the victims of sexual assault is an order of magnitude higher. (See for instance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_assault_in_the_United_States_military#Recent_statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_assault_in_the_United_S...) > 23 percent of women and 4 percent of men reported experiencing unwanted sexual contact Even worse, 3% of false positives is a twenty-eighth of the percentage of unreported rapes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#United_States > Only 16% of rapes and sexual assaults are reported to the police
- zymhan 10y ago
  You don't think it's possible that a small percentage of really shitty men are responsible for most of those of sexual assaults?
  - espadrine 10y ago
    According to the US Bureau of Justice statistics, three out of four rapes happen between people that know each other. It is even higher in most countries. The average rapist is not a lone wolf, it is a friend that didn't care about consent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#United_States
- DanBC 10y ago
  That number comes from the FBI. I agree it feels very low - the UK has something like 90,000 rapes per year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20982105 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20982105 > The Independent uses its front page to highlight what it describes as the justice system's failure to protect women - and men - from sexual assault. It reports that research by the Ministry of Justice, the Home Office and the Office for National Statistics suggests that about 1,000 rapists are convicted every year despite up to 95,000 people being subjected to rape. (about 12,000 of those (or maybe as well) are male victims.)
- dr0l3 10y ago
  No you may not. Sexual assualt is a despicable crime and offenders ought to be castrated, but it does in no way neccesitate nor does it excuse false accusations. Furthermore if your argument should have any validity it should count for other crimes as well. In that case what is the comfortable amount of false accusations of murder? theft? or any other horrible crime you could possibly come up with. To top it off lets engage in a thought experiment, lets assume that the false accusation rate was 50%. Lets imagine that a person is sexually assaulted, how serious is that report going to be taken? Now imagine the same scenario where the false accusation rate is 0.0%, how seriously is the report then taken?

hackuser 10y ago

With due respect, this is a politically charged issue so I'm dubious of trusting random people, such as the author of that article. Are there more established sources around on this issue?

nickpsecurity 10y ago
Google "rape conviction overturned DNA evidence." Happens too much.
- tptacek 10y ago
  There were 67,000+ sexual assault convictions in 2012, and 18 overturned convictions. Would you like that as a percentage? That's 0.02%.
  - nickpsecurity 10y ago
    Exactly. Convictions through the roof. That's why they should take it to court. Far as overturned, do you have data on how many got to prove something with DNA? Or conviction rate without it?
    - tptacek 10y ago
      You just suggested, in the comment I replied to, that there were significant numbers of overturned rape convictions. There are not. "Exactly"?
      - nickpsecurity 10y ago
        Maybe I remembered wrong. I retract that one for now. I'll reinvestigate the topic later on.
    - nikcub 10y ago
      RAINN say[0], based on DOJ/FBI data, that ~30% of rapes get reported and only ~4% lead to a conviction Ridiculously low rate of conviction [0] https://rainn.org/get-information/statistics/reporting-rates https://rainn.org/get-information/statistics/reporting-rates
  - tzs 10y ago
    Shouldn't the comparison be with the number of rape convictions, not the number of sexual assault convictions, since he was bringing up the number of DNA overturned rape convictions? I've not been able to find the number of rape convictions in 2012. I found a claim of 85000 rapes in 2012 [1], and claims that 3-10% of rapes lead to a conviction. If one really wanted to do this right, it would be necessary to look at what fraction of those who are convicted and claim they are innocent are able to get a retroactive DNA test on the evidence, and also take into account that such testing often comes after years in prison and so the comparison should be taking into account the rape convictions in the year that someone was sentenced, not the year they their conviction was overturned. Considering that I was not even able to find a good number on the number of convictions by year, though, I have no hope of reasonably finding the information necessary for the aforementioned analysis. I've been noticing this kind of thing (not being able to find some statistics that I would have expected to be trivially findable in an intuitively obvious way by the most casual searcher) happening quite a lot over the last couple of years, and it puzzles me. [1] http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
throwaway76543 10y ago
Scott Alexander cited his sources. Perhaps read the article and follow up on them?
- hackuser 10y ago
  Generally a fair statement, but not always realistic: 1) I simply don't have time to read the citations of everything I read (and then check the citations' citations). 2) Even with a solid factual basis, it's easy to twist and spin and fool people who lack expertise in the field. For example, the author could simply omit essential facts.

espadrine 10y ago

May I argue that it is uncomfortably low? The estimated percentage of women that are the victims of sexual assault is an order of magnitude higher. (See for instance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_assault_in_the_United_States_military#Recent_statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_assault_in_the_United_S...) > 23 percent of women and 4 percent of men reported experiencing unwanted sexual contact Even worse, 3% of false positives is a twenty-eighth of the percentage of unreported rapes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#United_States > Only 16% of rapes and sexual assaults are reported to the police

zymhan 10y ago
You don't think it's possible that a small percentage of really shitty men are responsible for most of those of sexual assaults?
- espadrine 10y ago
  According to the US Bureau of Justice statistics, three out of four rapes happen between people that know each other. It is even higher in most countries. The average rapist is not a lone wolf, it is a friend that didn't care about consent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#United_States
DanBC 10y ago
That number comes from the FBI. I agree it feels very low - the UK has something like 90,000 rapes per year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20982105 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20982105 > The Independent uses its front page to highlight what it describes as the justice system's failure to protect women - and men - from sexual assault. It reports that research by the Ministry of Justice, the Home Office and the Office for National Statistics suggests that about 1,000 rapists are convicted every year despite up to 95,000 people being subjected to rape. (about 12,000 of those (or maybe as well) are male victims.)
dr0l3 10y ago
No you may not. Sexual assualt is a despicable crime and offenders ought to be castrated, but it does in no way neccesitate nor does it excuse false accusations. Furthermore if your argument should have any validity it should count for other crimes as well. In that case what is the comfortable amount of false accusations of murder? theft? or any other horrible crime you could possibly come up with. To top it off lets engage in a thought experiment, lets assume that the false accusation rate was 50%. Lets imagine that a person is sexually assaulted, how serious is that report going to be taken? Now imagine the same scenario where the false accusation rate is 0.0%, how seriously is the report then taken?