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We're detailing the -70% in our first piece, it's based on the assumption of a 30% reduction in profits (so a 10%-15% fall in revenue, especially now that Alpha
by kalkisresearch 10y ago
We're detailing the -70% in our first piece, it's based on the assumption of a 30% reduction in profits (so a 10%-15% fall in revenue, especially now that Alphabet's moonshots are eating up more & more of ad revenue from Google), which would lead to a repricing of the stock from "growth" to "value", and thus a P/E of 15 instead of 30.
Fraud is part of Google. Spider.io discovered bot clicks on Youtube ads, which we mention. Not long ago, news came out that a botnet had infected AdSense for Search (http://marketingland.com/botnet-hijacks-search-results-siphon-google-adsense-search-revenue-177468 http://marketingland.com/botnet-hijacks-search-results-sipho...), so the actual google.com ad real estate that's considered the best in the world. No one is safe.
We are new and we do exist. You can check our profiles on LinkedIn, the names are real & all. If you drop us a line by email, we'll gladly answer. You must also aknowledge that every piece needs substantial amounts of work, so someone real has to actually put in all the manhours. Notwithstanding the technology that's behind the charts.
The posts on ad tech are free because we need to make a name for ourselves.
The thumbnails suck because we overlooked it, focusing on everything else, thanks for pointing that out :) Cheers
- Guvante 10y agoSo a 10-15% fall in revenue due to fraud leads to a 70% reduction in price?
- shostack 10y agoAnd where have you factored in the attempts Google makes to stamp out fraud, such as by refunding clicks they identify as fraudulent? [1] https://support.google.com/adwords/answer/42995?hl=en https://support.google.com/adwords/answer/42995?hl=en
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- pellucide 10y agoOf the -70%, the biggest drop comes from the assumption that PE is going down to 15 from 30. That in itself is such a big assumption. Other arguments you spell out are valid, but does not justify the PE adjustment.
- pg_is_a_butt 10y agoAdSense wasn't infected... Users of AdSense were... SOME users... a small number. probably less than the number of people whose machines were locked down with ransomware instead of set to click ads. would you rather have ransomware, or someone else in charge of the ads you ignore? so... you get accused of singling out google, so then you point out you "mentioned" youtube? you do know who owns youtube, right? give me $10,000 and i'll send you my report on who owns youtube. you're an idiot.