The overconfidence effect [0] is real. I see it in both made up games (90% of the class thinks they'll score in the top 50% on a test, or 90% of people think t

The overconfidence effect [0] is real. I see it in both made up games (90% of the class thinks they'll score in the top 50% on a test, or 90% of people think they're better than average drivers) as well as real situations where people overestimate their ability to meet deadlines. In complex software development projects, this overconfidence has a lot of second and third order effects. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect