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"Lots of approaches have been tried over the decades, and all have failed." I beg to differ with that. Marvin Minsky's idea of having 5000 people creating a c
by marshallp 17y ago
"Lots of approaches have been tried over the decades, and all have failed."
I beg to differ with that.
Marvin Minsky's idea of having 5000 people creating a common sense database of sorts wasn't tried. (the closest is cyc, which only had 20 people most of the time).
Genetic programming has not been tried at all really.
Machine learning hasn't been seriously tried either (the closest efforts have been google goggles and google search maybe).
AI is serious and complicated engineering project. Billions are spent on creating skyscapers, tunnels, and airplanes. Yet the money spent on AI is orders of magnitude less even though the payoff is orders of magnitude more.
If I had to guess, I'd say AI would be easily achievable within a year using any of the above approaches if a trillion dollars were spent on it this year.
- eru 17y agoI beg to differ. All the approaches you mentioned are still under heady investigation. It's only the name of AI that has been tarnished. And the progress in the tools will eventually lead to more "intelligent" systems.
- marshallp 17y agoWhat do you mean by 'heavy investigation'. The latest skyscrapers in dubai cost billions of dollars each. How much is spent on AI per year worldwide. I'd bet it's less than 100 million. I wouldn't call that serious effort. How has the name of AI been tarnished. If people believe you can spend a fraction of the money spent on a building to create human level intelligence then it's their 'intelligence' that is tarnished. If your goal is create human level ai, than more 'intelligent' systems is not progress, we've had 'intelligent' tools since the first loom weaving machines were created hundreds of years ago.
- coffeeaddicted 17y agoThe game industry does spend some money on AI development. Not sure if it's 100 million, but it's a serious amount as most game development teams have at least one or two AI developers. Although most people probably don't realize how much game AI has advanced in the last decade as most of the advances had been to cope with increasingly complex game worlds.
- marshallp 17y agoThe point is, there are no new advancements to be had in in ai - you either hand code it (good old fashioned ai) or search for (machine learning/genetic programming) or a combination of both. No 'new' algorithms will be found that will magically solve ai. Little bits of coding here and there that use an 'ai' technique don't cut it. Automated trading uses 'ai' techniques, billions of dollars worth, but it won't make a dent towards creating ai.
- deleted 17y ago[deleted]
- eru 17y agoI guess in a roundabout way those will make a difference. Also the `unrelated' working of Moore's law will help.
- eru 17y agoE.g. Hedge funds and Google and Wal-Mart, among others, spend a lot of money on machine learning from huge data sets.