3 ms·
If they just predict every start-up to fail, statistically, they would be 90%+ accurate :P Predicting the success of a start up is probably just as hard as pre
by Frocer 19y ago
If they just predict every start-up to fail, statistically, they would be 90%+ accurate :P
Predicting the success of a start up is probably just as hard as predicting where the market is going to go tomorrow (if not harder). There are too many variables in play. I think this is just a PR stunt; it definitely created enough buzz!
- rrival 19y agoFunny =) Article says 90% aren't home runs - I'm curious: what's the expected rate of profitable exits (non-loss exits)? Is there enough activity in the vc-backed space / volume in the startup space to classify investments in tech startups on a mutual fund-like scale of risk vs growth expectation or is everyone, to massively oversimplify it, playing roulette hoping for another google?
- Frocer 19y agoI read that 1 out of 10 VC-funded start up succeeds, on average. I am assuming "succeed" means profitable exit. Activity wise, there certainly are enough data to pull a reasonable sample size to create a model. However, the tricky part is to identify the right variables. In my opinion, unlike the stock market, the variables to start-up success is much difficult to quantify. Would love to see their theory behind their model though!