Except the "one in a billion chance" was pulled out of something soaking in a hot tub, and Occam's Razor obviously favors base reality alone rather than the sup

Except the "one in a billion chance" was pulled out of something soaking in a hot tub, and Occam's Razor obviously favors base reality alone rather than the superset consisting of base reality plus some very advanced civilization living in base reality plus some bizarre reason why that very advanced civilization has nothing better to do than run hyperrealistic simulations of a much more primitive civilization.