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>If you assume any rate of improvement at all then games will become indistinguishable from reality," Musk said. "Even if that rate of advancement drops by a th
by jere 10y ago
>If you assume any rate of improvement at all then games will become indistinguishable from reality," Musk said. "Even if that rate of advancement drops by a thousand from what it is now, let's just imagine it's 10,000 years in the future, which is nothing on the evolutionary scale."
Uh... following this precisely 10,000 years from now would at 1/1000 of our current advancement rate would look like 2026 (assuming our current rate doesn't slow down). We don't really have photorealistic graphics now and I'm not convinced that we'll have them in 10 years. Even if it is photorealistic, it'll just barely look that way on the macroscopic scale. Now simulate all the particles in the universe.
>Musk said, the odds that we are living our lives in base reality — that is, "real" reality — is one in billions.
Musk just presents an interesting argument and asks "can you find the flaw." Sure. The flaw is that there's absolutely no reason to think that:
...computers are going to speed up by 40 orders of magnitude, ever
...and there will be planet sized computers
...and civilizations will be motivated to spent their planet sized computing resources on simulations
The whole thing is absurd.
- StavrosK 10y ago> Uh... following this precisely" 10,000 years from now would at 1/1000 of our current advancement rate would look like 2026 Only if advancement is linear.
- csours 10y agoI agree with your first two points, but as to the 3rd point, what else would you do with a planet sized computer? There just isn't that much interesting stuff to do with that much computing power besides simulation.
- jere 10y agoScience of course! Maybe you simulating the entire universe for science is a thing you want to do, but there's no reason to think you'd want to (or even be able to without simulating the earlier bits) t=4.5 billion years rather than t=0. And the numbers I gave only allow you to simulate roughly in realtime, so... your civilization has to stick around for another 4.5 billion years to get to us.