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The only thing that can ''take out'' Uber is widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles, whereupon ride sharing becomes a physical-capital intensive business (c

by nugget 10y ago

The only thing that can ''take out'' Uber is widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles, whereupon ride sharing becomes a physical-capital intensive business (cars) rather than the current human-capital intensive business (drivers/their driver network). Autonomous vehicles (and the infrastructure to support them) significantly reduce the amazing network efforts that Uber has enjoyed to date. An investment into Uber at these valuations is a bet that this future adoption (to the point where it would disrupt the massive revenue Uber realizes from places like LA, NYC, and SF) is decades further out than some futurists predict. Even transitioning into this brave new world Uber still has a lot of brand value, although there will be a ton of competition (all auto makers such as Tesla, GM, Ford, and new entrants such as Apple, Google, and Amazon), ultimately benefiting consumers: enjoy your $12.50 ride (est. 35% of which will be local and state taxes) from SFO to 3rd and Market.

cc439 10y ago
>The only thing that can ''take out'' Uber is widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles Or their customers losing interest as driver/fare subsidies are slowly dialed back. I've already begun planning on Uber with hesitation as I have now twice been left "stranded" for ~30 minutes without an active driver available in my city. I'm fine with the surge pricing which comes along with that but Uber is becoming increasingly unattractive to drivers and that's a real problem alongside increasing fares. Most of the casual drivers who fuelled Uber's early explosive growth are long gone now that the true costs of using your personal vehicle as a taxi became clear. Even the dedicated drivers are staying in on weekdays because Uber oversaturated the driver pool in small markets while cutting back on payouts. There aren't enough riders on a Tuesday evening for more than 1-2 drivers to dedicate their time and when those 1-2 call it a night, there's no one willing to stay up for a single $7 fare.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- nugget 10y ago
  What city do you live in? I've traveled all over the US in the past year and haven't experienced this. I can imagine in a relatively remote, low-density city with sub 50k population it could become an issue at the most off-peak hours.
CPLX 10y ago
> The only thing that can ''take out'' Uber is widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles That's ridiculous. It's not even a little hard to imagine that they could be overtaken by a similar competitor such as Lyft given a plausible sequence of events. In fact it's basically a certainty that they would be if they ever abandoned competing based on price. Which defeats a hell of a lot of the point of paying to acquire a monopoly in the first place.
- hencq 10y ago
  Agreed. They wouldn't even need to be overtaken. It seems that a lot of the valuation is based on the premise that this is a global winner takes all market. If it turns out that's not true and there is in fact space for multiple competitors then the valuation could turn out to be a lot less.
  - Fricken 10y ago
    If Uber has a moat of any sort to protect itself from competition, I'm not seeing it. Once Uber has executed a tactical blitzkreig in a new city and incited a pogrom against the cab drivers, and fought the legislative battles with resistant city councils; the door is open for any rideshare company to glide in on Uber's coatails and take advantage of all that costly trailblazing without paying a dime.
    - eru 10y ago
      Cynically: that's why Uber doesn't want to win that kind of war. They want to get in, and then work with the locals to establish some `sensible regulation'. Regulation that just happens to be cumbersome enough to deter new small-scale entrants.
      - big_youth 10y ago
        This is not true in Austin. The city passed a fingerprint and registration requirement and uber and lyft both left the following weekend. Smaller competitors are growing fast. I miss the nice apps and cheap prices but the alternatives are ok.
semi-extrinsic 10y ago
There is also a definite risk that legislation will hit them hard. I'd say that's much bigger than the risk posed by autonomous cars.
- nugget 10y ago
  I agree but I think it's more along the lines of ''we will tax you'' than ''we will shut you down''. Once the Gov starts to make money from you then you've turned them into a business partner with a vested interest in keeping you alive (see Airbnb).
petra 10y ago
>> Autonomous vehicles (and the infrastructure to support them) significantly reduce the amazing network efforts that Uber has enjoyed to date. Still there might be a political play(using million of drivers, etc) to delay the entrance of self-driving-cars until 2 competitors are about equal, and than it might be better for one company to cooperate with UBER and get some advantage than to try to go alone.

by nugget 10y ago

cc439 10y ago

>The only thing that can ''take out'' Uber is widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles Or their customers losing interest as driver/fare subsidies are slowly dialed back. I've already begun planning on Uber with hesitation as I have now twice been left "stranded" for ~30 minutes without an active driver available in my city. I'm fine with the surge pricing which comes along with that but Uber is becoming increasingly unattractive to drivers and that's a real problem alongside increasing fares. Most of the casual drivers who fuelled Uber's early explosive growth are long gone now that the true costs of using your personal vehicle as a taxi became clear. Even the dedicated drivers are staying in on weekdays because Uber oversaturated the driver pool in small markets while cutting back on payouts. There aren't enough riders on a Tuesday evening for more than 1-2 drivers to dedicate their time and when those 1-2 call it a night, there's no one willing to stay up for a single $7 fare.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
nugget 10y ago
What city do you live in? I've traveled all over the US in the past year and haven't experienced this. I can imagine in a relatively remote, low-density city with sub 50k population it could become an issue at the most off-peak hours.

CPLX 10y ago

> The only thing that can ''take out'' Uber is widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles That's ridiculous. It's not even a little hard to imagine that they could be overtaken by a similar competitor such as Lyft given a plausible sequence of events. In fact it's basically a certainty that they would be if they ever abandoned competing based on price. Which defeats a hell of a lot of the point of paying to acquire a monopoly in the first place.

hencq 10y ago
Agreed. They wouldn't even need to be overtaken. It seems that a lot of the valuation is based on the premise that this is a global winner takes all market. If it turns out that's not true and there is in fact space for multiple competitors then the valuation could turn out to be a lot less.
- Fricken 10y ago
  If Uber has a moat of any sort to protect itself from competition, I'm not seeing it. Once Uber has executed a tactical blitzkreig in a new city and incited a pogrom against the cab drivers, and fought the legislative battles with resistant city councils; the door is open for any rideshare company to glide in on Uber's coatails and take advantage of all that costly trailblazing without paying a dime.
  - eru 10y ago
    Cynically: that's why Uber doesn't want to win that kind of war. They want to get in, and then work with the locals to establish some `sensible regulation'. Regulation that just happens to be cumbersome enough to deter new small-scale entrants.
    - big_youth 10y ago
      This is not true in Austin. The city passed a fingerprint and registration requirement and uber and lyft both left the following weekend. Smaller competitors are growing fast. I miss the nice apps and cheap prices but the alternatives are ok.

semi-extrinsic 10y ago

There is also a definite risk that legislation will hit them hard. I'd say that's much bigger than the risk posed by autonomous cars.

nugget 10y ago
I agree but I think it's more along the lines of ''we will tax you'' than ''we will shut you down''. Once the Gov starts to make money from you then you've turned them into a business partner with a vested interest in keeping you alive (see Airbnb).

petra 10y ago

>> Autonomous vehicles (and the infrastructure to support them) significantly reduce the amazing network efforts that Uber has enjoyed to date. Still there might be a political play(using million of drivers, etc) to delay the entrance of self-driving-cars until 2 competitors are about equal, and than it might be better for one company to cooperate with UBER and get some advantage than to try to go alone.