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> We called 19 out of the past 19 contests. FiveThirtyEight, whose model cannot work without polling, accurately predicted 13. FiveThirtyEight's model could wo
by chimeracoder 10y ago
> We called 19 out of the past 19 contests. FiveThirtyEight, whose model cannot work without polling, accurately predicted 13.
FiveThirtyEight's model could work without polling (it's not the only predictor they use), but they don't publish results until there are at least two polls conducted. I would call that a feature, not a bug.
Also, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the outcome of every primary race that it modeled, on both sides, except one (Michigan Democratic primary).
- SyneRyder 10y agoThey got more than Michigan wrong. They also had Clinton with a 90% chance of winning Indiana, and that's not the way it went. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-democratic/ http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-fo... It's unfortunately burned into my mind, because of the 24 bets I made on the primaries this year, it's the only one I got wrong, but I lost $75 on that bet.