> 1) jobs that mostly create economic value (doctors, farmers, programmers): the percentage of these jobs is already small and keeps decreasing with technology.

> 1) jobs that mostly create economic value (doctors, farmers, programmers): the percentage of these jobs is already small and keeps decreasing with technology. I really don't follow why job types 2 and 3 would grow instead of shrink; shouldn't job types 1 and 2 be the ones to increase with technological advances? Technological advancements meant massive increases in output per farmer but farming itself does not require specialized skills, so the increased productivity lead to the drop in the farmer population. Contrast this with activities like programming and medicine which cannot be automated wholesale -- programming and medicine do require specialized skills. For instance, we'll need more programmers in future than we have now since someone has to program/maintain code written for self-driving cars (for the rest of the population), precision farming (for farmers), telemedicine (for doctors) etc, and with efforts like Learnable Programming [1], more people will pick up programming as a career, so the ranks of people that identify with the programming profession would swell not decrease. I believe the same increased productivity would eventually happen to the field of medicine -- if computers become really good at the basic stuff -- physical examinations that can produce an initial diagnosis that is fairly accurate, would-be doctors will spend a shorter time in training since they have less material to master. I think this will eventually lead to more people qualifying to become doctors. So the point I'm making is that including farmers along with doctors and programmers as examples of job type 1 needs some rethinking. [1] http://worrydream.com/LearnableProgramming/ http://worrydream.com/LearnableProgramming/