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Author here. Thanks for commenting, interesting point! However, as you can see in the section "1960s", many similar comments were predicted 50 years ago. The p
by kennethfriedman 10y ago
Author here. Thanks for commenting, interesting point!
However, as you can see in the section "1960s", many similar comments were predicted 50 years ago. The point I address in this paper is that optimism is easy when things are going well.
This is a great example. Lots of people are saying today that we will have X in 10 years. But in 2006, no one was saying we will have X in 20 years.
I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm saying it's worth questing why you are so optimistic, and whether it's because we aren't looking at the big picture.
- sushirain 10y agoThe difference from the 60's mis-predictions is that today we already have speech and visual object recognition systems working with 95% accuracy and we only need to get them to 99%. This gap will be closed by data collection and faster processors, no algorithmic leaps necessary.