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Local minimum? In the next 10 years many deep learning applications will materialize: speech recognition will reach human level in production, autonomous trucks
by sushirain 10y ago
Local minimum? In the next 10 years many deep learning applications will materialize: speech recognition will reach human level in production, autonomous trucks on highways, autonomous cars for consumers,
AR, personal robot cleaners. The following 10 years will not fail us, too.
- kennethfriedman 10y agoAuthor here. Thanks for commenting, interesting point! However, as you can see in the section "1960s", many similar comments were predicted 50 years ago. The point I address in this paper is that optimism is easy when things are going well. This is a great example. Lots of people are saying today that we will have X in 10 years. But in 2006, no one was saying we will have X in 20 years. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'm saying it's worth questing why you are so optimistic, and whether it's because we aren't looking at the big picture.
- sushirain 10y agoThe difference from the 60's mis-predictions is that today we already have speech and visual object recognition systems working with 95% accuracy and we only need to get them to 99%. This gap will be closed by data collection and faster processors, no algorithmic leaps necessary.