It's not that optimistic. Even if you assume a totally uninformative prior, it's still reasonably likely to happen in our lifetime. E.g. the copernicus method/p

It's not that optimistic. Even if you assume a totally uninformative prior, it's still reasonably likely to happen in our lifetime. E.g. the copernicus method/prior gives an estimate of 50% probability within the next 65 years. And an even more optimistic prediction if you add other factors: http://lesswrong.com/lw/mxy/using_the_copernican_mediocrity_principle_to/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/mxy/using_the_copernican_mediocrity_... You must have some strong additional information to make such a pessimistic prediction. I really don't know where you get the impression that the majority of HNers expect strong AI in 10 years. That's just ridiculously. I would guess maybe less than 5% think that. Yes there are a lot of optimistic articles on AI, but they are almost all about weak AI.