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Your numbers are probably closer to the truth, as I said, I never did the math or looked for existing calculations. I just looked up the energy consumption in 2
by danbruc 10y ago
Your numbers are probably closer to the truth, as I said, I never did the math or looked for existing calculations. I just looked up the energy consumption in 2008 - EU-27 40,821 kWh/capita, World 21,283 kWh/capita - which gives a factor of 2 and hoped that energy consumption would be a reasonable proxy for resource consumption. I definitely expected something more than 2 but would not have guessed more than maybe 5.
A factor of 32 is a lot but that is also the extreme. China at 11, that leaves 5 billion people. If they were all at 1 that would drag the average down to 2.7. So maybe between 3 and 5 in the end? That still means a 5 to 10 fold increase in their resource consumption and matches my expectation. Suddenly needing twice as much of everything is probably already way harder than it first sounds, but up to 10 times...
- nkurz 10y agoI'm not familiar with the numbers either, but your estimate sounds plausible to me. Tom Murphy has a nice presentation from which a more exact figure can probably be extracted, but I don't see it there directly: http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2013/09/the-real-population-problem/ http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2013/09/the-real-populat...