I'm reminded of a message from The Innovator's Dilemma by Clay Christensen. When PCs first came out, no one wanted them. When Honda motorcycles first came out,

I'm reminded of a message from The Innovator's Dilemma by Clay Christensen. When PCs first came out, no one wanted them. When Honda motorcycles first came out, no one wanted them. When email systems first came out, no one wanted them. These things all flew in the face of the established norms, moving upmarket and eventually overtaking the market leaders. There were no markets for these things then, but these products created their own markets. Of course, as you said, we don't know who the exact winners will be, but like the Richter scale, there are some indicators that can be helpful in determining the magnitude and general location of the next earth-shaking market movements. Christensen's framework recommends examining several of a product's consumer utility curves for exploitable inefficiencies in niche (and usually low-end) markets. E.g., laptop manufacturers value 2.5" hard drives for their form-factor and are less sensitive to price per GB. E.g., teenagers value the speed, ease, and essentialism of Snapchat and are willing to forgo access to an extended peer network on Facebook. While we'll never know exactly what will succeed or fail, thinking about the market is almost always a productive activity that can certainly have a dramatic impact on outcomes.