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I spent a few minutes on it and it looks like, if Zika did not exist, the Olympics would add 10% of extra total yearly tourism to Rio. Some complications: * t

I spent a few minutes on it and it looks like, if Zika did not exist, the Olympics would add 10% of extra total yearly tourism to Rio. Some complications: * tourism to Rio this year is presumably lower than the baseline I'm using because it is presently the site of a Zika outbreak. * the tourism into Rio for the Olympics is especially international, so it may be reasonable to be especially concerned about its effect on global transmission of the virus. I think the people advocating for canceling the Olympics understand that it's only 10% extra tourism, but still think that small percentage of extra tourism is a bad outcome.

graeme 10y ago
I posted the article. I think the second point is most worrisome. Most visitors to Rio are either: 1. From Latin America, where Zika already is, or 2. From US/Europe, where Zika can't go. The olmypics will bring a delegation from every country + tourists from more of those countries. So Zika can spread to other regions. And once it spreads anywhere in a large region it will likely spread everywhere.
- the_watcher 10y ago
  > From US/Europe, where Zika can't go. What? There have been Zika cases in the US.
  - cperciva 10y ago
    What he meant was that while Zika can be carried anywhere by humans, it won't spread in areas which don't have the right type of mosquitos.
    - DrScump 10y ago
      Except that it is communicable between humans (and, presumably, other hosts).
      - cperciva 10y ago
        It can be communicated between humans, but it sounds like the rate at which that occurs is far too low to cause an epidemic.
    - graeme 10y ago
      That's what I meant. It's already going to spread through the US regardless because it's physically connected to areas where Zika exists. I suppose Southern Europe might be able to get it? I'm not sure if the extent of the mosquitos there. Update: only a very small bit of southern Spain. So not really a concern for Europe or North Africa. Also, they don't have the sort of contiguous area where it would spread across a whole continent. Map of Aedes Aegyptus: http://m.imgur.com/uCegZHS?r http://m.imgur.com/uCegZHS?r
- stonecraftwolf 10y ago
  On the east coast, the mosquitos that carry Zika are found as far north as New York.
  - ScottBurson 10y ago
    This appears to be true: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/vector/range.html http://www.cdc.gov/zika/vector/range.html The range shown here includes all of the Southeast and Texas, much of the southern Midwest, and California up to and including the Bay Area.
  - patall 10y ago
    This is only the range of Aedes aegypti. Whether a particular strain of the mosquito can carry Zika remains to be seen (though quite likely) as Aedes aegypti is very heterogenous.

graeme 10y ago

I posted the article. I think the second point is most worrisome. Most visitors to Rio are either: 1. From Latin America, where Zika already is, or 2. From US/Europe, where Zika can't go. The olmypics will bring a delegation from every country + tourists from more of those countries. So Zika can spread to other regions. And once it spreads anywhere in a large region it will likely spread everywhere.

the_watcher 10y ago
> From US/Europe, where Zika can't go. What? There have been Zika cases in the US.
- cperciva 10y ago
  What he meant was that while Zika can be carried anywhere by humans, it won't spread in areas which don't have the right type of mosquitos.
  - DrScump 10y ago
    Except that it is communicable between humans (and, presumably, other hosts).
    - cperciva 10y ago
      It can be communicated between humans, but it sounds like the rate at which that occurs is far too low to cause an epidemic.
  - graeme 10y ago
    That's what I meant. It's already going to spread through the US regardless because it's physically connected to areas where Zika exists. I suppose Southern Europe might be able to get it? I'm not sure if the extent of the mosquitos there. Update: only a very small bit of southern Spain. So not really a concern for Europe or North Africa. Also, they don't have the sort of contiguous area where it would spread across a whole continent. Map of Aedes Aegyptus: http://m.imgur.com/uCegZHS?r http://m.imgur.com/uCegZHS?r
stonecraftwolf 10y ago
On the east coast, the mosquitos that carry Zika are found as far north as New York.
- ScottBurson 10y ago
  This appears to be true: http://www.cdc.gov/zika/vector/range.html http://www.cdc.gov/zika/vector/range.html The range shown here includes all of the Southeast and Texas, much of the southern Midwest, and California up to and including the Bay Area.
- patall 10y ago
  This is only the range of Aedes aegypti. Whether a particular strain of the mosquito can carry Zika remains to be seen (though quite likely) as Aedes aegypti is very heterogenous.