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The charts under the header "Trump Does Not Drive Revenue" seem to indicate 2.5x the number of articles can be written about him (vs Clinton) without dropping t

The charts under the header "Trump Does Not Drive Revenue" seem to indicate 2.5x the number of articles can be written about him (vs Clinton) without dropping the number of page views significantly below other candidates. So if the value of a page view is worth about the same for each candidate, Trump is driving more revenue, right?

swehner 10y ago
Agreed
optimuspaul 10y ago
That seems to be what the data is saying. I think the article is trying to paint it differently and they don't actually understand the data.
guywithnose 10y ago
Exactly. They ignored the law of diminishing return.
synference 10y ago
I'm one of the authors of the article. Quick answer: The data shows that if you're a journalist about to write your next article, you're likely to get more views if you write it about Clinton rather than Trump. It's true that Trump got more pageviews overall, but that seems to be mostly because way more articles were written about him in the first place. Long Answer: In the article we suggest that if publishers would have written more articles about Clinton, they would have received more page views, because in the data we observe posts on Clinton receive more page views on average. Similarly, we suggest writing more articles on Bernie Sanders would have caused an increase in referrals from social and search. As with all non-experimental approaches to causal inference, valid conclusions require strong assumptions. In the case of this analysis, we assume that the average number of page views that articles on a candidate receives is independent of the number of articles written on that candidate. If it were the case that writing more articles on Clinton, and fewer on Trump, would have caused Clinton articles to receive fewer views, and Trump articles to receive more, then our conclusions might be wrong.
- TheCowboy 10y ago
  I feel like you're working from a broken model. Trump is the head, and the other candidates are the long tail. You said: "It's true that Trump got more pageviews overall, but that seems to be mostly because way more articles were written about him in the first place." And: "we suggest that if publishers would have written more articles about Clinton, they would have received more page views, because in the data we observe posts on Clinton receive more page views on average" This seems to be the wrong conclusion because of diminishing returns. Writing more articles about Clinton should still push down the average page views. There is only so much interest, and only so much new to write about every day. None of the candidates can create fresh new controversies to feed the media the way Trump can. The question is how much would that push it down? I don't think it would be inaccurate to suggest, based on that these sites exist in a market, that it would push it down significantly below Trump. I don't believe a base that strong exists per article, where any article is guaranteed to get some absolute number of page views. If diminishing returns aren't present or are extremely weak, then I'm wrong. If anything, the data doesn't rule out that sites/reporters are correctly maximizing Trump coverage. Or they may not be maximizing enough since absolute demand is so high and Trump generates so much fresh content. If you can write about one easy topic, and maintain an average that high with only a small decrease in the average, you are doing more with less.
  - synference 10y ago
    In the comment above, I try to clearly lay out that my conclusion rests on the assumption that for a given candidate, avg views per article and number of articles are independent. I agree that if you reject this assumption, and instead assume that there are 'diminishing returns', then the conclusion I arrived at could be wrong. There probably is some kind of diminishing return effect, but we don't know how strong it is. It could be weak compared the the effect that 'readers will consume whatever journalists write'. It's pretty interesting the all of the last four leading candidates (Trump, Cruz, Clinton, and Sanders) all had roughly comparable numbers for pageviews per post. That's evidence that readers just pretty much read whatever is published (with the exception of Kasich, a long shot). It's also true that if you're a journalist right now, faced with the current distribution of articles, you're likely to get more page views by writing your next article on Clinton. This claim doesn't rest on any strong assumptions. That could change if many more articles on Clinton are written, but it's true for now. If you look at the data in the dashboard, it's also interesting to see that Bernie Sanders gets way more social and search referrals compared to Clinton and Trump.

swehner 10y ago

Agreed

optimuspaul 10y ago

That seems to be what the data is saying. I think the article is trying to paint it differently and they don't actually understand the data.

guywithnose 10y ago

Exactly. They ignored the law of diminishing return.

synference 10y ago

I'm one of the authors of the article. Quick answer: The data shows that if you're a journalist about to write your next article, you're likely to get more views if you write it about Clinton rather than Trump. It's true that Trump got more pageviews overall, but that seems to be mostly because way more articles were written about him in the first place. Long Answer: In the article we suggest that if publishers would have written more articles about Clinton, they would have received more page views, because in the data we observe posts on Clinton receive more page views on average. Similarly, we suggest writing more articles on Bernie Sanders would have caused an increase in referrals from social and search. As with all non-experimental approaches to causal inference, valid conclusions require strong assumptions. In the case of this analysis, we assume that the average number of page views that articles on a candidate receives is independent of the number of articles written on that candidate. If it were the case that writing more articles on Clinton, and fewer on Trump, would have caused Clinton articles to receive fewer views, and Trump articles to receive more, then our conclusions might be wrong.

TheCowboy 10y ago
I feel like you're working from a broken model. Trump is the head, and the other candidates are the long tail. You said: "It's true that Trump got more pageviews overall, but that seems to be mostly because way more articles were written about him in the first place." And: "we suggest that if publishers would have written more articles about Clinton, they would have received more page views, because in the data we observe posts on Clinton receive more page views on average" This seems to be the wrong conclusion because of diminishing returns. Writing more articles about Clinton should still push down the average page views. There is only so much interest, and only so much new to write about every day. None of the candidates can create fresh new controversies to feed the media the way Trump can. The question is how much would that push it down? I don't think it would be inaccurate to suggest, based on that these sites exist in a market, that it would push it down significantly below Trump. I don't believe a base that strong exists per article, where any article is guaranteed to get some absolute number of page views. If diminishing returns aren't present or are extremely weak, then I'm wrong. If anything, the data doesn't rule out that sites/reporters are correctly maximizing Trump coverage. Or they may not be maximizing enough since absolute demand is so high and Trump generates so much fresh content. If you can write about one easy topic, and maintain an average that high with only a small decrease in the average, you are doing more with less.
- synference 10y ago
  In the comment above, I try to clearly lay out that my conclusion rests on the assumption that for a given candidate, avg views per article and number of articles are independent. I agree that if you reject this assumption, and instead assume that there are 'diminishing returns', then the conclusion I arrived at could be wrong. There probably is some kind of diminishing return effect, but we don't know how strong it is. It could be weak compared the the effect that 'readers will consume whatever journalists write'. It's pretty interesting the all of the last four leading candidates (Trump, Cruz, Clinton, and Sanders) all had roughly comparable numbers for pageviews per post. That's evidence that readers just pretty much read whatever is published (with the exception of Kasich, a long shot). It's also true that if you're a journalist right now, faced with the current distribution of articles, you're likely to get more page views by writing your next article on Clinton. This claim doesn't rest on any strong assumptions. That could change if many more articles on Clinton are written, but it's true for now. If you look at the data in the dashboard, it's also interesting to see that Bernie Sanders gets way more social and search referrals compared to Clinton and Trump.