4 ms·

The Rise and Fall of Nintendo’s Miitomo: Why Downloads Don’t Matter

29 points by garry 10y ago

minimaxir 10y ago
Comparing Miitomo with Candy Crush Saga/Clash Royale is comparing apples to oranges in the strictest sense of the term. As a result, the data visualizations are very misleading. All three games are very different genres and it would be expected to have different usage patterns. I realize this post is simply marketing for SurveyMonkey's product, but it seems like the numbers/analyses are highly arbitrary and do not entice me to look at the product. At the least, the focus on only-metrics-SurveyMonkey-can-provide limits the quality of the analysis because it doesn't incorporate rankings and revenue which is relevant. (Miitomo hit #1 Free App Overall on launch and hit the death spiral in a week: https://imgur.com/a/SXnze https://imgur.com/a/SXnze)
- rwallan 10y ago
  Thanks for the comment - I'm part of the team here at SMI and did a little work on this post. We look at engagement and churn because they're largely independent of genre, or if you're even a game, for that matter - those metrics are used to evaluate to SaaS companies, websites, even service businesses. This is because those metrics a proxy for whether your customers want what you're selling. Certain categories of apps (and subcategories of games) have different averages for engagement and retention, but overall more is better for both. Candy Crush and Miitomo are similar in that they're light, broad-appeal social games (compared to Clash, a harder core game). Yet the metrics of the King games are more similar to each other than Candy Crush and Miitomo are. App store rank is mostly a function of download velocity. Downloads tell you nothing about the forward prospects of a game. Miitomo fell in the rankings as the initial attention wore off, but if users were sticking around it could have been the start of a new powerhouse franchise. Revenue isn't related to downloads as only people who use your app have the opportunity to give you money. This the reason we look at active users. We looked at revenue internally, but it's not a particularly interesting story. Most games settle at a level of revenue-per-active-user and don't move all that much over time. So revenue is dependent on your active users. Definitely open to any other feedback if you think there's something else we should look at: intelligence AT surveymonkey
  - in_cahoots 10y ago
    It sounds like you're only referring to the peak when you talk about downloads. If you superimposed the three games you'd see that Miitomo fell off much more rapidly than the other two; to me that says as much as all of the rest of your post.
Fej 10y ago
I think Nintendo expects their games to do well since they're Nintendo. Maybe they're figuring out the hard way that mobile isn't the same.
- alanfalcon 10y ago
  I think if it were actually a game things might be different. Miitomo is just a social toy with a strange mini game that can be played to win clothing.
  - xufi 10y ago
    Speaking of that, This reminds me of the WII Mi persona that you had when you were asked to make when you started oup your Wii. What happened to that.
    - CM30 10y ago
      Huh? If you mean Miis, they've been in tons of games since the Wii era, feature in Miitomo and can also be created on the 3DS and Wii U. Most Nintendo systems (and a few games) also let you choose a specific Mii to represent yourself.
      - xufi 10y ago
        I see. I didn't know that. I havent really played with them since they were introduced .
alanfalcon 10y ago
The problem is compounded because while I've been logging on daily and participating, as my friends slowly drop off there's less for me to do and fewer people to interact with and much less incentive for me to come back the next day.
- minimaxir 10y ago
  That behavior is the case with every social network. (which is what Miitomo is categorized; it is not in the Gaming category)
- xlm1717 10y ago
  It should have had the ability to add friends over SMS from day one. I downloaded it on day one and my sister did too. However, since I have Android and she has iOS, the methods it launched with to add friends didn't work. If I could have added my sister as a friend, I probably would've been more interested in continuing to play miitomo.

29 points by garry 10y ago

Comparing Miitomo with Candy Crush Saga/Clash Royale is comparing apples to oranges in the strictest sense of the term. As a result, the data visualizations are very misleading. All three games are very different genres and it would be expected to have different usage patterns. I realize this post is simply marketing for SurveyMonkey's product, but it seems like the numbers/analyses are highly arbitrary and do not entice me to look at the product. At the least, the focus on only-metrics-SurveyMonkey-can-provide limits the quality of the analysis because it doesn't incorporate rankings and revenue which is relevant. (Miitomo hit #1 Free App Overall on launch and hit the death spiral in a week: https://imgur.com/a/SXnze https://imgur.com/a/SXnze)

rwallan 10y ago
Thanks for the comment - I'm part of the team here at SMI and did a little work on this post. We look at engagement and churn because they're largely independent of genre, or if you're even a game, for that matter - those metrics are used to evaluate to SaaS companies, websites, even service businesses. This is because those metrics a proxy for whether your customers want what you're selling. Certain categories of apps (and subcategories of games) have different averages for engagement and retention, but overall more is better for both. Candy Crush and Miitomo are similar in that they're light, broad-appeal social games (compared to Clash, a harder core game). Yet the metrics of the King games are more similar to each other than Candy Crush and Miitomo are. App store rank is mostly a function of download velocity. Downloads tell you nothing about the forward prospects of a game. Miitomo fell in the rankings as the initial attention wore off, but if users were sticking around it could have been the start of a new powerhouse franchise. Revenue isn't related to downloads as only people who use your app have the opportunity to give you money. This the reason we look at active users. We looked at revenue internally, but it's not a particularly interesting story. Most games settle at a level of revenue-per-active-user and don't move all that much over time. So revenue is dependent on your active users. Definitely open to any other feedback if you think there's something else we should look at: intelligence AT surveymonkey
- in_cahoots 10y ago
  It sounds like you're only referring to the peak when you talk about downloads. If you superimposed the three games you'd see that Miitomo fell off much more rapidly than the other two; to me that says as much as all of the rest of your post.

Fej 10y ago

I think Nintendo expects their games to do well since they're Nintendo. Maybe they're figuring out the hard way that mobile isn't the same.

alanfalcon 10y ago
I think if it were actually a game things might be different. Miitomo is just a social toy with a strange mini game that can be played to win clothing.
- xufi 10y ago
  Speaking of that, This reminds me of the WII Mi persona that you had when you were asked to make when you started oup your Wii. What happened to that.
  - CM30 10y ago
    Huh? If you mean Miis, they've been in tons of games since the Wii era, feature in Miitomo and can also be created on the 3DS and Wii U. Most Nintendo systems (and a few games) also let you choose a specific Mii to represent yourself.
    - xufi 10y ago
      I see. I didn't know that. I havent really played with them since they were introduced .

alanfalcon 10y ago

The problem is compounded because while I've been logging on daily and participating, as my friends slowly drop off there's less for me to do and fewer people to interact with and much less incentive for me to come back the next day.

minimaxir 10y ago
That behavior is the case with every social network. (which is what Miitomo is categorized; it is not in the Gaming category)
xlm1717 10y ago
It should have had the ability to add friends over SMS from day one. I downloaded it on day one and my sister did too. However, since I have Android and she has iOS, the methods it launched with to add friends didn't work. If I could have added my sister as a friend, I probably would've been more interested in continuing to play miitomo.