I concede i didn't do a lot of math, and I agree with the points raised here: 1. That the valuation preference is more relevant than the value cap. Altman is w

I concede i didn't do a lot of math, and I agree with the points raised here: 1. That the valuation preference is more relevant than the value cap. Altman is well aware of this, and I think himself might have brought it up in an interview (with Kara Swisher?). However, for our purposes, I am using the value cap as a measure of valuation for ease of use. 2. I agree with the other comment that one or two companys in the pool are doing the heavy lifting. There is a power law distribution. So for the first preduction, i just looked at Uber's last value (again, I didn't account for the preference so this is misleading) at $68 Billion and think yes, Uber + these other companies will probably get up to $200 in another 4 years. Similarly, I'll just pick the top 1 or 2 companies in a pool and guess that if we get over 20% of the value in one year then I just extend linearly. Its not detailed, its just a quick mental short cut.