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The robotics and machine revolution has already hit the US. Car manufacturing: We still build cars here, but we don't employ nearly as many people. Logging: c

The robotics and machine revolution has already hit the US. Car manufacturing: We still build cars here, but we don't employ nearly as many people. Logging: contrary to popular belief, the spotted owl didn't destroy logging jobs. Machines that let 1 person replace 20 did. Manufacturing is the easiest, first place to replace workers, but AI will replace lots of people in America. It looks like trucking and taxis are on the short list - that's a few million workers - but fast food restaurants are up next (and those innovations will move up the chain to fancier restaurants). Over the last 200 years, there was almost always a new role for people when their job was automated, but over the last 20 years a lot of those new roles were lower paying service jobs. No way is our consumer culture actually based on small scale production and artisan touches - and not that many of those artisan touches are made by people or machines in China. That may be what you notice, but most of America's paycheck goes to the regular old normal stuff.

dogma1138 10y ago
But this is what already happened, we talk about the next level of automation, generic automation, machine learning, and next generation robotics that could replicate the finesse and agility of humans and are flexible enough to be adapted for any task. The manufacturing in western nations in many cases is already as automated as it can get (yes there is always a room for more optimization but industries that have been automated since the 70's will and are already hitting diminishing returns), what has not been automated are mostly tasks that we choose not to automate for various reasons, many of which are cultural. And yes most of the stuff we buy is mass produced, generic, and already highly automated but it's also not made in the US, the US consumer doesn't care about Chinese workers or unemployment in China, and it won't buy a 250$ hand crafted anything in China unless they are caught drunk in a tourist trap. And that's exactly the point artisan crafting and manufacturing has been developing in the US and it is pretty much immune to threats from automation and the AI/Machine Learning revolution because we as consumers are making a conscious decision to buy it. And even when we do buy mass produced generic crap just look at how many products are marketed today by selling you the human story from shoes to coffee beans it's all the same.
- jtmcmc 10y ago
  That is not true at all. We have an entire service economy that is rife for automation. It hasn't been automated yet because it wasn't cost efficient. It is rapidly becoming so.
  - throwaway049 10y ago
    Car washes in UK recently experienced this effect in reverse: because automated wash machines are capital-intensive they have been partly displaced by very cheap workers, mainly from Eastern Europe, who are allegedly modern day slaves [0] [0] http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/dozen-modern-day-car-wash-slaves-rescued-police/story-29187692-detail/story.html http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/dozen-modern-day-car-wash-sl...
- gdudeman 10y ago
  I fully agree that manufacturing is largely automated in Western nations, but I disagree with your assertion that hand crafted stuff will save us. $250 hand crafted goods are a tiny and shrinking part of our economy bought by wealthy individuals. This is not 5% of our labor force, nor is it 5% of our GDP. Most the stuff we buy isn't stuff - it's services, lawyers, finance, insurance, health care. AI will dramatically reduce employment in every single one of those industries. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States#GDP_by_industry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States#G...)
SixSigma 10y ago
One kind of automation usually unmentioned is counter service. Gas stations in Europe are shedding staff and being replaced by self serve card machines - 24 hours, no staff. Self serve shops where one staff member supervises 20 registers with shoppers doing the shop work! These were the jobs that young people used two learn how to work at a job. I worked the register when I was a teenager and it taught me well and "can be trusted with money" is an important resume tickbox.
- ghaff 10y ago
  Most gas stations in the US have been that way for a long time. The main reason you have a human attendant is that it probably makes sense to have someone on-site to keep an eye on things/handle problems and their salary is presumably covered by the convenience store anyway. But it's often just the one person unless it's a larger store. The main exception is the few states that don't let customers pump their own gas and the service stations that still exist.
  - SixSigma 10y ago
    We're at 4 double sided pumps, a roof, a sign and some CCTV. No people, no shop, no money.
    - ghaff 10y ago
      I've seen those in the US but they're very uncommon. I assume the store pays for itself and it's considered a positive feature of the gas station by many motorists.
    - Grishnakh 10y ago
      Why would they do that? There's no money in selling gas. Gas stations make all their money now selling food in the convenience store. The gas pumps are just a way to get you into the store. And they're moving upmarket, making custom sandwiches and hot meals, selling fresh fruit bowls, etc.
  - galdosdi 10y ago
Animats 10y ago
Logging today: [1] No muss, no fuss, just a machine on an articulated chassis that neatly cuts off trees, picks them up in one motion, shears off the branches, cuts the trunk into convenient log lengths, and stacks the logs. About two trees a minute. From Ponsse, which essentially owns this industry, after beating out Komatsu and Deere.[2] Although you don't see it, the log was scanned for defects during the cutting process, which determined where it was cut and whether it becomes boards or chips. No more lumberjacks. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luygMuoFnXs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luygMuoFnXs [2] http://www.ponsse.com http://www.ponsse.com
- douche 10y ago
  It's really ridiculous with logging. My grandfather cut wood as part of a 100 man crew, with axes and hand saws, horses, and all of the logistics involved in running a camp to house and feed that many men and animals, to cut a few hundred cord of wood a season. My father was a subcontractor who worked on a team of four, between the chopper with the chainsaw, the cable skidder driver, the guy on the landing slashing and piling, and the truck driver, and they cut a couple hundred cord a week. Now one guy with a cut-to-length system can cut a few hundred cord a day, if he's in good wood.

dogma1138 10y ago

But this is what already happened, we talk about the next level of automation, generic automation, machine learning, and next generation robotics that could replicate the finesse and agility of humans and are flexible enough to be adapted for any task. The manufacturing in western nations in many cases is already as automated as it can get (yes there is always a room for more optimization but industries that have been automated since the 70's will and are already hitting diminishing returns), what has not been automated are mostly tasks that we choose not to automate for various reasons, many of which are cultural. And yes most of the stuff we buy is mass produced, generic, and already highly automated but it's also not made in the US, the US consumer doesn't care about Chinese workers or unemployment in China, and it won't buy a 250$ hand crafted anything in China unless they are caught drunk in a tourist trap. And that's exactly the point artisan crafting and manufacturing has been developing in the US and it is pretty much immune to threats from automation and the AI/Machine Learning revolution because we as consumers are making a conscious decision to buy it. And even when we do buy mass produced generic crap just look at how many products are marketed today by selling you the human story from shoes to coffee beans it's all the same.

jtmcmc 10y ago
That is not true at all. We have an entire service economy that is rife for automation. It hasn't been automated yet because it wasn't cost efficient. It is rapidly becoming so.
- throwaway049 10y ago
  Car washes in UK recently experienced this effect in reverse: because automated wash machines are capital-intensive they have been partly displaced by very cheap workers, mainly from Eastern Europe, who are allegedly modern day slaves [0] [0] http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/dozen-modern-day-car-wash-slaves-rescued-police/story-29187692-detail/story.html http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/dozen-modern-day-car-wash-sl...
gdudeman 10y ago
I fully agree that manufacturing is largely automated in Western nations, but I disagree with your assertion that hand crafted stuff will save us. $250 hand crafted goods are a tiny and shrinking part of our economy bought by wealthy individuals. This is not 5% of our labor force, nor is it 5% of our GDP. Most the stuff we buy isn't stuff - it's services, lawyers, finance, insurance, health care. AI will dramatically reduce employment in every single one of those industries. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States#GDP_by_industry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States#G...)

SixSigma 10y ago

One kind of automation usually unmentioned is counter service. Gas stations in Europe are shedding staff and being replaced by self serve card machines - 24 hours, no staff. Self serve shops where one staff member supervises 20 registers with shoppers doing the shop work! These were the jobs that young people used two learn how to work at a job. I worked the register when I was a teenager and it taught me well and "can be trusted with money" is an important resume tickbox.

ghaff 10y ago
Most gas stations in the US have been that way for a long time. The main reason you have a human attendant is that it probably makes sense to have someone on-site to keep an eye on things/handle problems and their salary is presumably covered by the convenience store anyway. But it's often just the one person unless it's a larger store. The main exception is the few states that don't let customers pump their own gas and the service stations that still exist.
- SixSigma 10y ago
  We're at 4 double sided pumps, a roof, a sign and some CCTV. No people, no shop, no money.
  - ghaff 10y ago
    I've seen those in the US but they're very uncommon. I assume the store pays for itself and it's considered a positive feature of the gas station by many motorists.
  - Grishnakh 10y ago
    Why would they do that? There's no money in selling gas. Gas stations make all their money now selling food in the convenience store. The gas pumps are just a way to get you into the store. And they're moving upmarket, making custom sandwiches and hot meals, selling fresh fruit bowls, etc.
- galdosdi 10y ago

Animats 10y ago

Logging today: [1] No muss, no fuss, just a machine on an articulated chassis that neatly cuts off trees, picks them up in one motion, shears off the branches, cuts the trunk into convenient log lengths, and stacks the logs. About two trees a minute. From Ponsse, which essentially owns this industry, after beating out Komatsu and Deere.[2] Although you don't see it, the log was scanned for defects during the cutting process, which determined where it was cut and whether it becomes boards or chips. No more lumberjacks. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luygMuoFnXs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luygMuoFnXs [2] http://www.ponsse.com http://www.ponsse.com

douche 10y ago
It's really ridiculous with logging. My grandfather cut wood as part of a 100 man crew, with axes and hand saws, horses, and all of the logistics involved in running a camp to house and feed that many men and animals, to cut a few hundred cord of wood a season. My father was a subcontractor who worked on a team of four, between the chopper with the chainsaw, the cable skidder driver, the guy on the landing slashing and piling, and the truck driver, and they cut a couple hundred cord a week. Now one guy with a cut-to-length system can cut a few hundred cord a day, if he's in good wood.