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I think #1 is actually the toughest bet. I can see Palantir, Dropbox and Pinterest either remaining static or even dropping from their current valuations. Even

I think #1 is actually the toughest bet. I can see Palantir, Dropbox and Pinterest either remaining static or even dropping from their current valuations. Even Uber and Airbnb don't have a clear path to huge growth in front of them, Airbnb is the safer bet for growth because of the lack of competition. Uber still seems a strong business but I'm not sure how well they continue to grow. X-factor for Uber is how it well it expands into complementary product verticals like self-driving cars, deliveries etc. SpaceX could end up carrying this category.

smt88 10y ago
> Uber and Airbnb Imagine a world in which any object (human, animal, package, food) can be moved from one place in a city to any other place in the city using a smartphone. An electric, self-driving vehicle picks it up and drops it off. That world is very nearly possible, and Uber is on the tip of the spear that's creating it. There's an absolutely massive upside. Uber is probably very under-valued. Airbnb is less world-changing, but they still have the rest of the hospitality industry to replace. I personally never stay at hotels anymore, and I don't understand why anyone would. People will continue to use hotels less and Airbnb more.
- clock_tower 10y ago
  I wouldn't bet on Uber based on self-driving cars. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car: most auto companies and most big tech companies are working on them, and I wouldn't bet that Uber can beat everyone from Audi to Google to the punch. It's more likely that they'll buy self-driving cars from whoever develops them first -- or that whoever develops them will create an app cheaper to use than Uber. (It's not like Uber would be particularly hard to replicate, at least not if you're Google.)
- ssharp 10y ago
  I hear that argument in favor of Uber a lot, but what barriers to entry exist for potential competitors when there are autonomous vehicles? Currently, you can argue that Uber's competitive advantage and big barrier to entry is the driver network. When you don't need a pool of humans and software that makes the human's job easier, why would Uber be better suited than another company to utilize self-driving vehicles?
  - aetherson 10y ago
    Also note that in this hypothetical world, Uber suddenly has to make gigantic capital investments in fleets of automobiles, whereas now they don't have that limiter on their growth. I find that a LOT of people go from "I envision a world in which rides-on-demand serves massively more rides" to "and thus Uber does very well as a for-profit company" with no steps in between. Since 1970, the number of passenger miles traveled by air in the US has grown about 6-fold [1]. And airlines have, as an entire industry, overall run a loss. There's a cautionary tale in there for Uber bulls. (BTW: Driverless cars don't necessarily mean that rides-on-demand becomes the dominant car transportation model, either, though it's certainly within the realm of the possible). [1] http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_40.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub...
    - fossuser 10y ago
      That's one model, but you could also have owners of autonomous cars allow Uber to use their car in the fleet. Basically you can pay people a lot less to be 'drivers' if they don't need to be driving.
      - aetherson 10y ago
        But then Uber has to share the profits with the owners of the cars. Also: if very large numbers of people are buying autonomous cars, then there's probably not a lot of increase in the rides-for-hire market.
  - smt88 10y ago
    > why would Uber be better suited than another company to utilize self-driving vehicles? People used to say the same about Amazon. Amazon was leading a race to the bottom in terms of prices, and they were selling the same products as everyone else. Amazon succeeds today because they embraced their competitors and they're aggressively pro-consumer (even to the detriment of their own employees). They're also way ahead of the curve in terms of operational investments. For example, Target can't match the Prime service even if it tries. Is that exactly the model Uber will follow? I doubt it. My point is just that even in commoditized industries, there can be a dominant player.
- syedkarim 10y ago
  Really? I prefer hotels over Airbnb. I appreciate the fact that I can instantly book any hotel room, rather than having to contact a host first. I've also not found a huge savings from Airbnb when compared to similar levels of privacy and convenience through Airbnb. Of course, each its own.
ssharp 10y ago
> Airbnb is the safer bet for growth because of the lack of competition Airbnb may not face huge direct competition like Uber does with Lyft, but there are still lots of alternative products going against Airbnb. I look at Airbnb as the eBay for short-term rentals. It's a big marketplace with a lot of inventory and has a huge network effect helping it, but it's hard to serve every niche perfectly. So, just like companies like Reverb have flanked business from eBay, I think specialty companies can flank business from Airbnb as well.
EdHominem 10y ago
Uber has zero stickiness outside retail car hailing. Their easy and seamless transactions are great compared to taxis, but are par-for-the-course in deliveries, etc. And the only thing Uber has going for it is being the only choice in most areas. When there's a competitor (as in SF) everyone has all the apps on their phone and shops around. Also, Uber's huge innovation is zero-capital rollouts. They use your car. When they have to buy a self-driving car they're back to square one and will also own all the liability.
- ghaff 10y ago
  Uber has also benefited from the fact that they offered a service in a well-established market--getting a driver to take you somewhere without reserving in advance. But a market that in many, maybe most, places was poorly served by existing incumbents for all sorts of local monopoly and regulatory capture reasons. It's easier to displace incumbents when they offer a widely used service but they basically suck at it. Things like food and package delivery, on the other hand, work pretty well where the economics have worked and it's unclear that uberizing, say, grocery delivery makes it attractive and financially viable where it wasn't before.

smt88 10y ago

> Uber and Airbnb Imagine a world in which any object (human, animal, package, food) can be moved from one place in a city to any other place in the city using a smartphone. An electric, self-driving vehicle picks it up and drops it off. That world is very nearly possible, and Uber is on the tip of the spear that's creating it. There's an absolutely massive upside. Uber is probably very under-valued. Airbnb is less world-changing, but they still have the rest of the hospitality industry to replace. I personally never stay at hotels anymore, and I don't understand why anyone would. People will continue to use hotels less and Airbnb more.

clock_tower 10y ago
I wouldn't bet on Uber based on self-driving cars. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car: most auto companies and most big tech companies are working on them, and I wouldn't bet that Uber can beat everyone from Audi to Google to the punch. It's more likely that they'll buy self-driving cars from whoever develops them first -- or that whoever develops them will create an app cheaper to use than Uber. (It's not like Uber would be particularly hard to replicate, at least not if you're Google.)
ssharp 10y ago
I hear that argument in favor of Uber a lot, but what barriers to entry exist for potential competitors when there are autonomous vehicles? Currently, you can argue that Uber's competitive advantage and big barrier to entry is the driver network. When you don't need a pool of humans and software that makes the human's job easier, why would Uber be better suited than another company to utilize self-driving vehicles?
- aetherson 10y ago
  Also note that in this hypothetical world, Uber suddenly has to make gigantic capital investments in fleets of automobiles, whereas now they don't have that limiter on their growth. I find that a LOT of people go from "I envision a world in which rides-on-demand serves massively more rides" to "and thus Uber does very well as a for-profit company" with no steps in between. Since 1970, the number of passenger miles traveled by air in the US has grown about 6-fold [1]. And airlines have, as an entire industry, overall run a loss. There's a cautionary tale in there for Uber bulls. (BTW: Driverless cars don't necessarily mean that rides-on-demand becomes the dominant car transportation model, either, though it's certainly within the realm of the possible). [1] http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_40.html http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/pub...
  - fossuser 10y ago
    That's one model, but you could also have owners of autonomous cars allow Uber to use their car in the fleet. Basically you can pay people a lot less to be 'drivers' if they don't need to be driving.
    - aetherson 10y ago
      But then Uber has to share the profits with the owners of the cars. Also: if very large numbers of people are buying autonomous cars, then there's probably not a lot of increase in the rides-for-hire market.
- smt88 10y ago
  > why would Uber be better suited than another company to utilize self-driving vehicles? People used to say the same about Amazon. Amazon was leading a race to the bottom in terms of prices, and they were selling the same products as everyone else. Amazon succeeds today because they embraced their competitors and they're aggressively pro-consumer (even to the detriment of their own employees). They're also way ahead of the curve in terms of operational investments. For example, Target can't match the Prime service even if it tries. Is that exactly the model Uber will follow? I doubt it. My point is just that even in commoditized industries, there can be a dominant player.
syedkarim 10y ago
Really? I prefer hotels over Airbnb. I appreciate the fact that I can instantly book any hotel room, rather than having to contact a host first. I've also not found a huge savings from Airbnb when compared to similar levels of privacy and convenience through Airbnb. Of course, each its own.

ssharp 10y ago

> Airbnb is the safer bet for growth because of the lack of competition Airbnb may not face huge direct competition like Uber does with Lyft, but there are still lots of alternative products going against Airbnb. I look at Airbnb as the eBay for short-term rentals. It's a big marketplace with a lot of inventory and has a huge network effect helping it, but it's hard to serve every niche perfectly. So, just like companies like Reverb have flanked business from eBay, I think specialty companies can flank business from Airbnb as well.

EdHominem 10y ago

Uber has zero stickiness outside retail car hailing. Their easy and seamless transactions are great compared to taxis, but are par-for-the-course in deliveries, etc. And the only thing Uber has going for it is being the only choice in most areas. When there's a competitor (as in SF) everyone has all the apps on their phone and shops around. Also, Uber's huge innovation is zero-capital rollouts. They use your car. When they have to buy a self-driving car they're back to square one and will also own all the liability.

ghaff 10y ago
Uber has also benefited from the fact that they offered a service in a well-established market--getting a driver to take you somewhere without reserving in advance. But a market that in many, maybe most, places was poorly served by existing incumbents for all sorts of local monopoly and regulatory capture reasons. It's easier to displace incumbents when they offer a widely used service but they basically suck at it. Things like food and package delivery, on the other hand, work pretty well where the economics have worked and it's unclear that uberizing, say, grocery delivery makes it attractive and financially viable where it wasn't before.