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Another comment in this thread claims to have done the same analysis and come to the opposite conclusion. But neither of you shared your math. Could you show th
by raldi 10y ago
Another comment in this thread claims to have done the same analysis and come to the opposite conclusion. But neither of you shared your math. Could you show the analysis that led to your conclusion, so we can compare it to the other one?
- projectramo 10y agoI concede i didn't do a lot of math, and I agree with the points raised here: 1. That the valuation preference is more relevant than the value cap. Altman is well aware of this, and I think himself might have brought it up in an interview (with Kara Swisher?). However, for our purposes, I am using the value cap as a measure of valuation for ease of use. 2. I agree with the other comment that one or two companys in the pool are doing the heavy lifting. There is a power law distribution. So for the first preduction, i just looked at Uber's last value (again, I didn't account for the preference so this is misleading) at $68 Billion and think yes, Uber + these other companies will probably get up to $200 in another 4 years. Similarly, I'll just pick the top 1 or 2 companies in a pool and guess that if we get over 20% of the value in one year then I just extend linearly. Its not detailed, its just a quick mental short cut.