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> Ethereum may attempt to move to proof of stake. [...] I believe this risk is manageable because there would be extensive testing beforehand. This is a really

> Ethereum may attempt to move to proof of stake. [...] I believe this risk is manageable because there would be extensive testing beforehand. This is a really big cop-out. I follow Ethereum pretty closely and I believe that the biggest threat to Ethereum's future is an attempt to move to proof-of-stake. If you spend a bit of time in the ethereum community you'll find that everyone is very excited to reap the benefits for getting-in-early on ethereum, and they're very excited for the eventual switch to proof-of-stake so that they can collect money. Everyone who is invested in Ethereum is doing so in order to stake. This is terrible for the community, because who is ever going to get excited to invest in meme-powered internet money that they already missed the boat on? What kind of testing is able to account for that kind of social effect? (Or maybe I'm just a stupid mathless Austrian.) Anyhow, that's just to talk about the social effects, and I think there are many technical problems with proof-of-stake beyond that... Let's not forget that there hasn't been a single successful PoS cryptosystem yet. I also think that there are big problems looming within the EVM, and to give the article credit, that's mentioned and represented fairly in the article. (forward search for 'Bit-thereum' in OP) I'm prepared to be wrong about Ethereum, even excited at the prospect. but if I was invested in a cryptocurrency it would be Bitcoin. I think that there are currency wars looming and I think Bitcoin stands to gain a lot from that. Bitcoin's big problems are overstated and will be solved in due time. It just needs to live past the death of Moore's law.

reddytowns 10y ago
I don't see how Moore's law has anything to do with Bitcoin. Their biggest problem is the huge company owned miners that could easily collude to control the network.
- nickysielicki 10y ago
  When the advantage provided by doing an in-house ASIC goes away, the limiting factor becomes cheap electricity, and the amount of people who are able to compete grows. Right now, a couple groups of people are trying to make the fastest ASIC so that they can convert electricity into money, using their proprietary efficient converter. But if everyone can get the same efficient converter, suddenly it's viable for anyone that can produce cheap electricity with a stable internet connection. And there are far more people/countries who are able to compete on the cost of electricity than there are people/companies who are able to compete on making the best SHA-256 ASIC. This tends towards decentralization.
  - reddytowns 10y ago
    Interesting, but you are talking about the end of the exponential growth dictated Moore's law to quickly become nearly a flat line. You sound like that guy back in the 1800's who predicted that everything that can be invented has been invented. It's possible for that to happen, but why do you think it will happen now?
    - nickysielicki 10y ago
      The argument is made best by this blog post by bunnie, backed up with real data and realistic projections. http://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?page_id=1927 http://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?page_id=1927
daoland 10y ago
Bitcoin's competition is not Ether, it will be another token built on Ethereum. There is a very high chance that a lot of Ethereum tokens individually will exceed the Ether market cap. Ether's main purpose is securing the Ethereum network and it will be used for staking in PoS and its own valuation will depend on the number of transactions in the network.
vintermann 10y ago
Have the problems with proof of stake been solved? As I recall, there was an argument that proof of stake didn't prevent forks very well, since people could hedge their bets and stake for both ends of the fork, and there would be no downside to doing so.
- DennisP 10y ago
  That's the "nothing at stake" problem. The Ethereum team claims to have solved it. I'm no expert but the basic idea is that stakers bet on which block will become part of the chain, and the block that does is the one that gets the most bets. Stakers start with small bets and progress to larger ones as the bets converge. If you make a large bet on a block that doesn't get included, you can lose substantial stake. What makes this possible is GHOST, which makes the blockchain aware of forks instead of just the final linear chain. (That's already part of Ethereum, and is what enables the 15 second block times.) There's more information at blog.ethereum.org.

reddytowns 10y ago

I don't see how Moore's law has anything to do with Bitcoin. Their biggest problem is the huge company owned miners that could easily collude to control the network.

nickysielicki 10y ago
When the advantage provided by doing an in-house ASIC goes away, the limiting factor becomes cheap electricity, and the amount of people who are able to compete grows. Right now, a couple groups of people are trying to make the fastest ASIC so that they can convert electricity into money, using their proprietary efficient converter. But if everyone can get the same efficient converter, suddenly it's viable for anyone that can produce cheap electricity with a stable internet connection. And there are far more people/countries who are able to compete on the cost of electricity than there are people/companies who are able to compete on making the best SHA-256 ASIC. This tends towards decentralization.
- reddytowns 10y ago
  Interesting, but you are talking about the end of the exponential growth dictated Moore's law to quickly become nearly a flat line. You sound like that guy back in the 1800's who predicted that everything that can be invented has been invented. It's possible for that to happen, but why do you think it will happen now?
  - nickysielicki 10y ago
    The argument is made best by this blog post by bunnie, backed up with real data and realistic projections. http://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?page_id=1927 http://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?page_id=1927

daoland 10y ago

Bitcoin's competition is not Ether, it will be another token built on Ethereum. There is a very high chance that a lot of Ethereum tokens individually will exceed the Ether market cap. Ether's main purpose is securing the Ethereum network and it will be used for staking in PoS and its own valuation will depend on the number of transactions in the network.

vintermann 10y ago

Have the problems with proof of stake been solved? As I recall, there was an argument that proof of stake didn't prevent forks very well, since people could hedge their bets and stake for both ends of the fork, and there would be no downside to doing so.

DennisP 10y ago
That's the "nothing at stake" problem. The Ethereum team claims to have solved it. I'm no expert but the basic idea is that stakers bet on which block will become part of the chain, and the block that does is the one that gets the most bets. Stakers start with small bets and progress to larger ones as the bets converge. If you make a large bet on a block that doesn't get included, you can lose substantial stake. What makes this possible is GHOST, which makes the blockchain aware of forks instead of just the final linear chain. (That's already part of Ethereum, and is what enables the 15 second block times.) There's more information at blog.ethereum.org.