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From the history of business it seems to me that many/most of the great innovations are making things a lot cheaper and convenient. Cars weren't transformationa
by oneloop 10y ago
From the history of business it seems to me that many/most of the great innovations are making things a lot cheaper and convenient. Cars weren't transformational when only a few rich people could afford them. So depending on how successful SpaceX is at "lighting things into orbit cheaper", yes, I think they might actually be doing something interesting.
- moomin 10y agoThe responses here are pretty much on the money, but just to expand on my original remark: yes, you're right that just achieving their goals might be transformative. However, that would require someone to come up with a use for the tech that is outside of what's already being achieved. SpaceX's _goals_ are nowhere near the level of tech required to have a sustainable human presence anywhere other than earth, or even put more interesting objects on other planets. And to date we're still talking about costs out of the reach of many nations, never mind companies. Don't get me wrong, what they're doing is hugely impressive and the nerd in me thinks it's amazing. But making a difference in a way that (to go back up the chain) gets people upset? I don't think SpaceX has got close to that.
- greglindahl 10y agoElon said (at the MIT lecture) that reducing launch costs by 99% was what was needed to colonize Mars with humans, so that's the goal. I have no idea what you think their goal is, but it doesn't appear to be the same.
- moomin 10y agoOkay, I wasn't aware of that, but _he's wrong_. There's a lot of problems required to colonize Mars they're not even working on. The ISS is, but to date no-one's really got any idea what to do about the fact that that people's health deteriorates massively in a few months out of our gravity well. Getting there is pretty hard too, even if you're in earth orbit.
- greglindahl 10y agoHe didn't present launch costs as the only problem to be solved.
- moomin 10y agoAh, I get you, but as I say, it kind of feels like he's working on the easiest part of the problem. Not that it's particularly easy by any normal measure.
- oneloop 10y agoSpaceX explicit stated purpose is to colonize Mars.