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What seems to be happening in the background is an increasing divide between rural and urban areas, where the rural areas vote for populist right-wing politicia

by sveme 10y ago

What seems to be happening in the background is an increasing divide between rural and urban areas, where the rural areas vote for populist right-wing politicians (Trump, FPÖ, AfD, Front National) while the urban areas vote for left wing (in the European sense) or liberal (in the US sense) parties. Most illustrative for this are the results of sunday's Austrian presidential elections, where the voters had to choose between a right-wing, populist candidate (in blue) and a left-wing, liberal candidate (in green): http://derstandard.at/2000037433421/Ab-1700-Hochrechnungen-und-Gemeindeergebnisse http://derstandard.at/2000037433421/Ab-1700-Hochrechnungen-u... Overlay it with a map of Austria and the rural areas voted very strongly for the right-wing candidate while the larger cities (Vienna, Innsbruck, Graz,...) voted for the green candidate. I'd really like to find the chance to overlay the last elections results for UKIP, Sweden Democrats, Trump, AfD etc. with population density maps.

golemotron 10y ago
These demographics underline an interesting shift in Left and Right across the west. The Left used to align itself with the working class, struggling against capital. Now it aligns with the cosmopolitan and against the unsophisticated. In the US there has been a flight toward cities, increasing the numbers of people with a cosmopolitan perspective. These demographics are worth watching.
- CarpetBench 10y ago
  > The Left used to align itself with the working class, struggling against capital. Now it aligns with the cosmopolitan and against the unsophisticated. Huh? That's not really true. Part of the reason the GOP is having such a hard time in the US right now is because minority populations are quickly starting to rise in numbers and they don't vote Republican for any number of reasons. These populations aren't what you'd consider traditionally "cosmopolitan" or "sophisticated" by any means. I mean, a voting base of cosmopolitans wouldn't really be enough to win an election anyway. There's a reason the GOP is trying really, really hard to win over more Hispanic voters lately. If you're arguing that minority populations are voting for the Left in spite of the Left being aligned with the elite, that's a fairly gross mischaracterization.
  - golemotron 10y ago
    > Huh? That's not really true. Part of the reason the GOP is having such a hard time in the US right now is because minority populations are quickly starting to rise in numbers and they don't vote Republican for any number of reasons. There's a shift underway. I think we'll see a repositioning of the GOP that will lead it to a majority in less than 10 years if not sooner. Trump's surprisingly high support from Latinos in the Primary is the first wave of this.
    - CarpetBench 10y ago
      > There's a shift underway. I think we'll see a repositioning of the GOP that will lead it to a majority in less than 10 years if not sooner. I'd argue mostly the opposite. There's a shift underway, but I don't think it'll be to the GOP's benefit. Fiscal conservatives and social conservatives are slowly starting to realize they're very different and becoming irreconcilable platforms. You can see the fracturing already this election cycle. Repositioning, sure. Majority? I think that'll take quite some time while they figure out what they want to be. > Trump's surprisingly high support from Latinos in the Primary is the first wave of this. Err maybe in comparison to Ted Cruz, but it's not really a contest for the general even according to Fox News: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/05/20/latinos-favor-clinton-over-trump-by-3-point-margin-fox-news-latino-poll-finds/ http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/05/20/latinos...
      - golemotron 10y ago
        Wait and watch. There will be a thing called the GOP but it will not look like our current conception of the GOP. The conservative hand-wringing over Trump's complete indifference to the traditional platform is the first step in transformation. We'll always have a two party system in the US. What the parties stand for changes drastically over time. The thing I think most people don't get is that politics is never resolved. There will always be a fight. And in a two party system, no one party will stay in power more than a couple of election cycles. There's a homeostatic mechanism at play.

by sveme 10y ago

golemotron 10y ago

These demographics underline an interesting shift in Left and Right across the west. The Left used to align itself with the working class, struggling against capital. Now it aligns with the cosmopolitan and against the unsophisticated. In the US there has been a flight toward cities, increasing the numbers of people with a cosmopolitan perspective. These demographics are worth watching.

CarpetBench 10y ago
> The Left used to align itself with the working class, struggling against capital. Now it aligns with the cosmopolitan and against the unsophisticated. Huh? That's not really true. Part of the reason the GOP is having such a hard time in the US right now is because minority populations are quickly starting to rise in numbers and they don't vote Republican for any number of reasons. These populations aren't what you'd consider traditionally "cosmopolitan" or "sophisticated" by any means. I mean, a voting base of cosmopolitans wouldn't really be enough to win an election anyway. There's a reason the GOP is trying really, really hard to win over more Hispanic voters lately. If you're arguing that minority populations are voting for the Left in spite of the Left being aligned with the elite, that's a fairly gross mischaracterization.
- golemotron 10y ago
  > Huh? That's not really true. Part of the reason the GOP is having such a hard time in the US right now is because minority populations are quickly starting to rise in numbers and they don't vote Republican for any number of reasons. There's a shift underway. I think we'll see a repositioning of the GOP that will lead it to a majority in less than 10 years if not sooner. Trump's surprisingly high support from Latinos in the Primary is the first wave of this.
  - CarpetBench 10y ago
    > There's a shift underway. I think we'll see a repositioning of the GOP that will lead it to a majority in less than 10 years if not sooner. I'd argue mostly the opposite. There's a shift underway, but I don't think it'll be to the GOP's benefit. Fiscal conservatives and social conservatives are slowly starting to realize they're very different and becoming irreconcilable platforms. You can see the fracturing already this election cycle. Repositioning, sure. Majority? I think that'll take quite some time while they figure out what they want to be. > Trump's surprisingly high support from Latinos in the Primary is the first wave of this. Err maybe in comparison to Ted Cruz, but it's not really a contest for the general even according to Fox News: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/05/20/latinos-favor-clinton-over-trump-by-3-point-margin-fox-news-latino-poll-finds/ http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/05/20/latinos...
    - golemotron 10y ago
      Wait and watch. There will be a thing called the GOP but it will not look like our current conception of the GOP. The conservative hand-wringing over Trump's complete indifference to the traditional platform is the first step in transformation. We'll always have a two party system in the US. What the parties stand for changes drastically over time. The thing I think most people don't get is that politics is never resolved. There will always be a fight. And in a two party system, no one party will stay in power more than a couple of election cycles. There's a homeostatic mechanism at play.