5 ms·

I know what you're getting at but I don't think the above comparison is entirely fair. Those houses don't have petrol pumps outside them either

gambiting 10y ago
Yes, but I go to a petrol station once a month, takes me 10 minutes to fill up and the whole tank lasts me for the whole month. With electric cars there are two ways out of this, either build enough electric charging points that you can charge while you are at work, or make every single car supercharger-compatible. I personally don't think the first option is likely, I don't see why my work(or any other) would have literally every single parking spot wired for charging(there's over 1000 parking spots at our office), and as for the second option, even 30 minute charging is excessive, it's fine o long journeys so you can go an have a coffee and stretch your legs, but if you want to quickly "fill up" after work 30 minutes is not acceptable. That's why I said that for majority of people charging at home is ideal - but a lot of people don't have private place to charge at home.
- garrettheaver 10y ago
  Yeah I understand what you mean and I think you're right. 1000 charge points is unacceptable but do we really need that? Given the current generation Tesla can already self navigate pretty well what's stopping the cars navigate the car park in your absence and charge themselves at a few central charge points. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI
ptaipale 10y ago
I think it is entirely fair. You can fill gas or diesel up at a station quite quickly. To charge batteries so that you can use the car, you really need a charging station available every night or day.
- garrettheaver 10y ago
  I don't really agree I'm sorry to say. It kinda makes assumptions about charge rates, charge locations (home, work, car parks) or even the means by which cars are "refilled". https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY
  - gambiting 10y ago
    Sure, but we are having a conversation about whether it's possible that electric cars will have 35% market share by 2025. Considering that apart from a few first-world countries(and even then, only in big cities) there is very little infrastructure to fully support a large fleet of electric vehicles, and the battery swapping technology is not available anywhere apart from a couple tesla testing stations, I don't think that's possible. It would require a huge investment, and even then, cars easily last 15-20 years, so expecting 35% of the market to be electric in just 9 years is crazy.
    - ZeroGravitas 10y ago
      35% Market Share generally means in this context: "35% of the cars sold in the year 2025 will be electric". If you want to talk about the number of cars in use that are electric, then "installed base" may be the more traditional term. Market share generally preceeds, installed base, especially in markets with durable goods.
    - garrettheaver 10y ago
      I understand the skeptical point of view and its fair enough, we'll all just have to wait and see how this all plays out. I'm more optimistic bearing in mind that nine years ago the electric car industry barely even existed and its ramping up at an astonishing pace over the last three years.
  - ptaipale 10y ago
    To avoid making assumptions, I'm thinking of the cars that you can get right now. I live in northern Europe where the "charging stations" are actually abundant (in the form of electric feeds to parking places, currently needed for the convenience and benefits of engine block and cabin heaters in the winter) but charging an electric vehicle still takes quite some time. But if we allow for technical development, then both electric and gasoline/diesel/lpg cars will also move ahead.

gambiting 10y ago

Yes, but I go to a petrol station once a month, takes me 10 minutes to fill up and the whole tank lasts me for the whole month. With electric cars there are two ways out of this, either build enough electric charging points that you can charge while you are at work, or make every single car supercharger-compatible. I personally don't think the first option is likely, I don't see why my work(or any other) would have literally every single parking spot wired for charging(there's over 1000 parking spots at our office), and as for the second option, even 30 minute charging is excessive, it's fine o long journeys so you can go an have a coffee and stretch your legs, but if you want to quickly "fill up" after work 30 minutes is not acceptable. That's why I said that for majority of people charging at home is ideal - but a lot of people don't have private place to charge at home.

garrettheaver 10y ago
Yeah I understand what you mean and I think you're right. 1000 charge points is unacceptable but do we really need that? Given the current generation Tesla can already self navigate pretty well what's stopping the cars navigate the car park in your absence and charge themselves at a few central charge points. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI

ptaipale 10y ago

I think it is entirely fair. You can fill gas or diesel up at a station quite quickly. To charge batteries so that you can use the car, you really need a charging station available every night or day.

garrettheaver 10y ago
I don't really agree I'm sorry to say. It kinda makes assumptions about charge rates, charge locations (home, work, car parks) or even the means by which cars are "refilled". https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY
- gambiting 10y ago
  Sure, but we are having a conversation about whether it's possible that electric cars will have 35% market share by 2025. Considering that apart from a few first-world countries(and even then, only in big cities) there is very little infrastructure to fully support a large fleet of electric vehicles, and the battery swapping technology is not available anywhere apart from a couple tesla testing stations, I don't think that's possible. It would require a huge investment, and even then, cars easily last 15-20 years, so expecting 35% of the market to be electric in just 9 years is crazy.
  - ZeroGravitas 10y ago
    35% Market Share generally means in this context: "35% of the cars sold in the year 2025 will be electric". If you want to talk about the number of cars in use that are electric, then "installed base" may be the more traditional term. Market share generally preceeds, installed base, especially in markets with durable goods.
  - garrettheaver 10y ago
    I understand the skeptical point of view and its fair enough, we'll all just have to wait and see how this all plays out. I'm more optimistic bearing in mind that nine years ago the electric car industry barely even existed and its ramping up at an astonishing pace over the last three years.
- ptaipale 10y ago
  To avoid making assumptions, I'm thinking of the cars that you can get right now. I live in northern Europe where the "charging stations" are actually abundant (in the form of electric feeds to parking places, currently needed for the convenience and benefits of engine block and cabin heaters in the winter) but charging an electric vehicle still takes quite some time. But if we allow for technical development, then both electric and gasoline/diesel/lpg cars will also move ahead.