7 ms·

Fuel engine are improving too and oil price doesn't seem to want to go down any time soon. I'd say we have an interesting 10 years ahead. Electric is probably g

by kfk 10y ago

Fuel engine are improving too and oil price doesn't seem to want to go down any time soon. I'd say we have an interesting 10 years ahead. Electric is probably going to win, but time estimates are very hard to do. Don't forget that replacing a car fleet is expensive and takes years. A modern car can easily last 15-20 years, so even if we started replacing fuel with electric today (which we are not), replacing the whole car fleet would require 15-20 years. I don't see the 35% so far fetched in 2025...

gambiting 10y ago
And don't forget that there are millions of people who have a car right now, but who wouldn't have a place to charge an electric car. People living in apartments, terraced houses, especially in the UK it's very common to see rows upon rows of houses, none of them with their own driveway.
- garrettheaver 10y ago
  I know what you're getting at but I don't think the above comparison is entirely fair. Those houses don't have petrol pumps outside them either
  - gambiting 10y ago
    Yes, but I go to a petrol station once a month, takes me 10 minutes to fill up and the whole tank lasts me for the whole month. With electric cars there are two ways out of this, either build enough electric charging points that you can charge while you are at work, or make every single car supercharger-compatible. I personally don't think the first option is likely, I don't see why my work(or any other) would have literally every single parking spot wired for charging(there's over 1000 parking spots at our office), and as for the second option, even 30 minute charging is excessive, it's fine o long journeys so you can go an have a coffee and stretch your legs, but if you want to quickly "fill up" after work 30 minutes is not acceptable. That's why I said that for majority of people charging at home is ideal - but a lot of people don't have private place to charge at home.
    - garrettheaver 10y ago
      Yeah I understand what you mean and I think you're right. 1000 charge points is unacceptable but do we really need that? Given the current generation Tesla can already self navigate pretty well what's stopping the cars navigate the car park in your absence and charge themselves at a few central charge points. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI
  - ptaipale 10y ago
    I think it is entirely fair. You can fill gas or diesel up at a station quite quickly. To charge batteries so that you can use the car, you really need a charging station available every night or day.
    - garrettheaver 10y ago
      I don't really agree I'm sorry to say. It kinda makes assumptions about charge rates, charge locations (home, work, car parks) or even the means by which cars are "refilled". https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY
      - gambiting 10y ago
        Sure, but we are having a conversation about whether it's possible that electric cars will have 35% market share by 2025. Considering that apart from a few first-world countries(and even then, only in big cities) there is very little infrastructure to fully support a large fleet of electric vehicles, and the battery swapping technology is not available anywhere apart from a couple tesla testing stations, I don't think that's possible. It would require a huge investment, and even then, cars easily last 15-20 years, so expecting 35% of the market to be electric in just 9 years is crazy.
        ZeroGravitas 10y ago
        35% Market Share generally means in this context: "35% of the cars sold in the year 2025 will be electric". If you want to talk about the number of cars in use that are electric, then "installed base" may be the more traditional term. Market share generally preceeds, installed base, especially in markets with durable goods.
        garrettheaver 10y ago
        I understand the skeptical point of view and its fair enough, we'll all just have to wait and see how this all plays out. I'm more optimistic bearing in mind that nine years ago the electric car industry barely even existed and its ramping up at an astonishing pace over the last three years.
- throwaway049 10y ago
  We would probably solve that by putting up more charging points at the roadside (there are quite a few of these around already in the UK), with a card reader for payment or perhaps a payment chip within the car's charging connector.
  - skrause 10y ago
    Where I live (in a dense German city) there wouldn't even be space at the roadside to install charging points; even the street lights are attachted to the houses because there was no space left. I have the same situation at work, so personally have a difficult time imagining to own an electric car anytime soon.
    - dooptroop 10y ago
      Where do the normal cars park?
      - mantas 10y ago
        By the side of the street. In between the street and pedestrians passage. Or between street and bicycle path. Sometimes diagonally. The only possible charging would be some stuff that's underground and comes out of the ground right next to the car. Hopefully attaches to the bottom of the car, so there're no hoses/wires flinging around. And some cars are parked at grey-legal spots blocking other cars. People just leave their phone numbers if someone needs to get out earlier. That is super common when you know people around and can expect to drive away sooner than your neighbour.
        Tempest1981 10y ago
        Or overhead?
      - skrause 10y ago
        Here is an example of such a street: https://www.google.de/maps/@51.2310008,7.0720156,3a,75y,127.29h,87.72t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1skRl1Fm1VvqV_1uDpmlYDIQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.de/maps/@51.2310008,7.0720156,3a,75y,127.... You bascially park your car somewhere half on the street, half on the curb. The sidewalk is just wide enough for people to walk there.

by kfk 10y ago

gambiting 10y ago

And don't forget that there are millions of people who have a car right now, but who wouldn't have a place to charge an electric car. People living in apartments, terraced houses, especially in the UK it's very common to see rows upon rows of houses, none of them with their own driveway.

garrettheaver 10y ago
I know what you're getting at but I don't think the above comparison is entirely fair. Those houses don't have petrol pumps outside them either
- gambiting 10y ago
  Yes, but I go to a petrol station once a month, takes me 10 minutes to fill up and the whole tank lasts me for the whole month. With electric cars there are two ways out of this, either build enough electric charging points that you can charge while you are at work, or make every single car supercharger-compatible. I personally don't think the first option is likely, I don't see why my work(or any other) would have literally every single parking spot wired for charging(there's over 1000 parking spots at our office), and as for the second option, even 30 minute charging is excessive, it's fine o long journeys so you can go an have a coffee and stretch your legs, but if you want to quickly "fill up" after work 30 minutes is not acceptable. That's why I said that for majority of people charging at home is ideal - but a lot of people don't have private place to charge at home.
  - garrettheaver 10y ago
    Yeah I understand what you mean and I think you're right. 1000 charge points is unacceptable but do we really need that? Given the current generation Tesla can already self navigate pretty well what's stopping the cars navigate the car park in your absence and charge themselves at a few central charge points. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI
- ptaipale 10y ago
  I think it is entirely fair. You can fill gas or diesel up at a station quite quickly. To charge batteries so that you can use the car, you really need a charging station available every night or day.
  - garrettheaver 10y ago
    I don't really agree I'm sorry to say. It kinda makes assumptions about charge rates, charge locations (home, work, car parks) or even the means by which cars are "refilled". https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY
    - gambiting 10y ago
      Sure, but we are having a conversation about whether it's possible that electric cars will have 35% market share by 2025. Considering that apart from a few first-world countries(and even then, only in big cities) there is very little infrastructure to fully support a large fleet of electric vehicles, and the battery swapping technology is not available anywhere apart from a couple tesla testing stations, I don't think that's possible. It would require a huge investment, and even then, cars easily last 15-20 years, so expecting 35% of the market to be electric in just 9 years is crazy.
      - ZeroGravitas 10y ago
        35% Market Share generally means in this context: "35% of the cars sold in the year 2025 will be electric". If you want to talk about the number of cars in use that are electric, then "installed base" may be the more traditional term. Market share generally preceeds, installed base, especially in markets with durable goods.
      - garrettheaver 10y ago
        I understand the skeptical point of view and its fair enough, we'll all just have to wait and see how this all plays out. I'm more optimistic bearing in mind that nine years ago the electric car industry barely even existed and its ramping up at an astonishing pace over the last three years.
throwaway049 10y ago
We would probably solve that by putting up more charging points at the roadside (there are quite a few of these around already in the UK), with a card reader for payment or perhaps a payment chip within the car's charging connector.
- skrause 10y ago
  Where I live (in a dense German city) there wouldn't even be space at the roadside to install charging points; even the street lights are attachted to the houses because there was no space left. I have the same situation at work, so personally have a difficult time imagining to own an electric car anytime soon.
  - dooptroop 10y ago
    Where do the normal cars park?
    - mantas 10y ago
      By the side of the street. In between the street and pedestrians passage. Or between street and bicycle path. Sometimes diagonally. The only possible charging would be some stuff that's underground and comes out of the ground right next to the car. Hopefully attaches to the bottom of the car, so there're no hoses/wires flinging around. And some cars are parked at grey-legal spots blocking other cars. People just leave their phone numbers if someone needs to get out earlier. That is super common when you know people around and can expect to drive away sooner than your neighbour.
      - Tempest1981 10y ago
        Or overhead?
    - skrause 10y ago
      Here is an example of such a street: https://www.google.de/maps/@51.2310008,7.0720156,3a,75y,127.29h,87.72t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1skRl1Fm1VvqV_1uDpmlYDIQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656 https://www.google.de/maps/@51.2310008,7.0720156,3a,75y,127.... You bascially park your car somewhere half on the street, half on the curb. The sidewalk is just wide enough for people to walk there.