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>I blame rampant inflation in cost and deflation in wages over time Inflation adjusted wages are near all time highs for all quintiles [1]. [1] http://www.adv

>I blame rampant inflation in cost and deflation in wages over time Inflation adjusted wages are near all time highs for all quintiles [1]. [1] http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Household-Income-Distribution.php http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Household-...

dragonwriter 10y ago
> Inflation adjusted wages are near all time highs for all quintiles [1]. Nope, that's inflation adjusted household income. Wages (what one gets paid per unit of work) are significantly down from the peak in the 1970s. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/Average-Hourly-Wage-Trends.php http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/Avera...
- ChrisLomont 10y ago
  From your own source - the peak was Jan 1978, around $22/hr, which was a small blurb, and more significantly, before women entered the workforce in droves. The pay at 2014 was $19.17/hr. Since 2014, real wages have increased (see BLS data) and are still increasing. And even the 2014 rate of $19/hr is higher than all but a few years in that entire chart. And wages is not the same as total remuneration, which has also increased, due to many non-wage benefits companies have added since 1978. See the time series "Total cost to employ" in BLS data to see that. Finally, demographics also change - the workforce is getting younger (as people are earlier in careers) ad boomers retire, lowering average wage while individuals are still better off. You can dig this out of census and BLS data also. So, how is this "rampant inflation in cost and deflation in wages over time". It's nearly flat for a long time, and significantly better than the decades before that. You called it rampant inflation as well as deflation in wages. To go from $22 to $19 over almost 30 years (completely ignoring the other relevant factors) is not a very big inflation or deflation effect whatsoever. Do the math.
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    > From your own source - the peak was Jan 1978, around $22/hr 1973 for the broad, cross-industry peak. (1978 was the peak for wages restricted to manufacturing.) > which was a small blurb. Both the broader and manufacturing measures were above their present levels at least a decade (nearly two for the manufacturing measure you fixated on) around their peak. > And even the 2014 rate of $19/hr is higher than all but a few years in that entire chart. Its lower than 1971-1989. > Since 2014, real wages have increased (see BLS data) and are still increasing. And then we can talk about the distribution of the recent gains... [0] [0] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-wor...
    - ChrisLomont 10y ago
      >And then we can talk about the distribution of the recent gains Ah, moving the goalposts. And irrelevant. The gains shown in the BLS [1] are median gains. I just redid the data that you posted up through today (Time series CPIAUCSL [2] and AHETPI [3] from FRED like the author did). We're less than $1/hr off the all time high and trending upwards. We're higher today than 90% of all months back through 1964, and within 5% of the all time high. This doesn't seem like "rampant inflation in cost and deflation in wages over time", since the required rate to lose 5% over nearly 40 years is less than 0.13% compounded annually. That's miniscule. And it ignores all other factors that actually account for a lot of the change (like people getting more returns in the form of benefits and better regulations, which often lowers wages). Today I learned 0.13% is "rampant inflation". A large difference between then and now is we let minorities and women earn significantly more money than that high, while white men are earning less. Overall every income quintile is doing better. There is more competition for wages, which generally drives it lower, but the data us consistent with stable wages despite increased benefits and increased supply of labor. There is nothing supporting your claim of "rampant inflation in cost and deflation in wages over time". I rest my case. We're done. [1] http://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm http://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm [2] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL/downloaddata https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL/downlo... [3] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI# https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI#

dragonwriter 10y ago

> Inflation adjusted wages are near all time highs for all quintiles [1]. Nope, that's inflation adjusted household income. Wages (what one gets paid per unit of work) are significantly down from the peak in the 1970s. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/Average-Hourly-Wage-Trends.php http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/Avera...

ChrisLomont 10y ago
From your own source - the peak was Jan 1978, around $22/hr, which was a small blurb, and more significantly, before women entered the workforce in droves. The pay at 2014 was $19.17/hr. Since 2014, real wages have increased (see BLS data) and are still increasing. And even the 2014 rate of $19/hr is higher than all but a few years in that entire chart. And wages is not the same as total remuneration, which has also increased, due to many non-wage benefits companies have added since 1978. See the time series "Total cost to employ" in BLS data to see that. Finally, demographics also change - the workforce is getting younger (as people are earlier in careers) ad boomers retire, lowering average wage while individuals are still better off. You can dig this out of census and BLS data also. So, how is this "rampant inflation in cost and deflation in wages over time". It's nearly flat for a long time, and significantly better than the decades before that. You called it rampant inflation as well as deflation in wages. To go from $22 to $19 over almost 30 years (completely ignoring the other relevant factors) is not a very big inflation or deflation effect whatsoever. Do the math.
- dragonwriter 10y ago
  > From your own source - the peak was Jan 1978, around $22/hr 1973 for the broad, cross-industry peak. (1978 was the peak for wages restricted to manufacturing.) > which was a small blurb. Both the broader and manufacturing measures were above their present levels at least a decade (nearly two for the manufacturing measure you fixated on) around their peak. > And even the 2014 rate of $19/hr is higher than all but a few years in that entire chart. Its lower than 1971-1989. > Since 2014, real wages have increased (see BLS data) and are still increasing. And then we can talk about the distribution of the recent gains... [0] [0] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-wor...
  - ChrisLomont 10y ago
    >And then we can talk about the distribution of the recent gains Ah, moving the goalposts. And irrelevant. The gains shown in the BLS [1] are median gains. I just redid the data that you posted up through today (Time series CPIAUCSL [2] and AHETPI [3] from FRED like the author did). We're less than $1/hr off the all time high and trending upwards. We're higher today than 90% of all months back through 1964, and within 5% of the all time high. This doesn't seem like "rampant inflation in cost and deflation in wages over time", since the required rate to lose 5% over nearly 40 years is less than 0.13% compounded annually. That's miniscule. And it ignores all other factors that actually account for a lot of the change (like people getting more returns in the form of benefits and better regulations, which often lowers wages). Today I learned 0.13% is "rampant inflation". A large difference between then and now is we let minorities and women earn significantly more money than that high, while white men are earning less. Overall every income quintile is doing better. There is more competition for wages, which generally drives it lower, but the data us consistent with stable wages despite increased benefits and increased supply of labor. There is nothing supporting your claim of "rampant inflation in cost and deflation in wages over time". I rest my case. We're done. [1] http://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm http://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm [2] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL/downloaddata https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL/downlo... [3] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI# https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI#