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> I'll describe it briefly. Every firm in this culture publishes their Bills of Materials, and design specs. Any other firm may take these, reuse them, improve

> I'll describe it briefly. Every firm in this culture publishes their Bills of Materials, and design specs. Any other firm may take these, reuse them, improve them. They must also share back. > This is why you can buy the same product from a slew of firms on Amazon or Ebay. This is why the price drops smoothly, as predicted by Cost Gravity. No patents and trade secrets to slow down the spread of knowledge. This is why Chinese products haven't just caught up to western designs. They are way, way ahead. My Xiaomi is built of 95% Chinese components. This is why Apple will die. So who pays for capex like the exact thing Apple is known for, protracted and high-quality R&D?

nihonde 10y ago
No one, because in this dystopian vision of zero returns for innovation, the copycats win until they have nothing left to copy, at which point, we're still using something like an Mi5 (which is visibly an iPhone clone) in 10 years. And as for software, it will be rootkits and hacks all the way down. My friend who manufactures random stuff in Thailand told me that he has a one month lead on China when his company releases a new product, after which copies flood the markets. His competition's labor costs are effectively negligible, and that's compared to Thai labor. Obviously, this is an unsustainable condition, and one day it will be the Chinese who are scrambling to stay ahead of Bangladesh or whoever.
- ido 10y ago
  Interesting, as nominal GDP per capita is higher in China than in Thailand.
  - nihonde 10y ago
    Yes, things are changing already. Thai average wages are about $400/month, and China are about $300/month. My anecdote is a few years old, and the Baht has fallen vs. the Yuan since then.
mindcrime 10y ago
So who pays for capex like the exact thing Apple is known for, protracted and high-quality R&D? Everybody, because it becomes a Red Queen race at some point. You either constantly innovate and create new stuff, or you get left behind. The "fast follower" companies just become part of the ecosystem, like everything else. It's also important to notice that "newer/better product" is one possible basis for competition, but it's not the only such basis. I mean, there's a reason that people still pay thousands of dollars for Chanel hand-bags or Rolex watches, even though cheap knockoffs exist, that look nearly identical to the untrained eye.
simonh 10y ago
> This is why Apple will die. Apple, proudly doomed™ and going out of business since 1976

nihonde 10y ago

No one, because in this dystopian vision of zero returns for innovation, the copycats win until they have nothing left to copy, at which point, we're still using something like an Mi5 (which is visibly an iPhone clone) in 10 years. And as for software, it will be rootkits and hacks all the way down. My friend who manufactures random stuff in Thailand told me that he has a one month lead on China when his company releases a new product, after which copies flood the markets. His competition's labor costs are effectively negligible, and that's compared to Thai labor. Obviously, this is an unsustainable condition, and one day it will be the Chinese who are scrambling to stay ahead of Bangladesh or whoever.

ido 10y ago
Interesting, as nominal GDP per capita is higher in China than in Thailand.
- nihonde 10y ago
  Yes, things are changing already. Thai average wages are about $400/month, and China are about $300/month. My anecdote is a few years old, and the Baht has fallen vs. the Yuan since then.

mindcrime 10y ago

So who pays for capex like the exact thing Apple is known for, protracted and high-quality R&D? Everybody, because it becomes a Red Queen race at some point. You either constantly innovate and create new stuff, or you get left behind. The "fast follower" companies just become part of the ecosystem, like everything else. It's also important to notice that "newer/better product" is one possible basis for competition, but it's not the only such basis. I mean, there's a reason that people still pay thousands of dollars for Chanel hand-bags or Rolex watches, even though cheap knockoffs exist, that look nearly identical to the untrained eye.

simonh 10y ago

> This is why Apple will die. Apple, proudly doomed™ and going out of business since 1976