what do you think the "it" is that you're missing? the thesis is pretty simple: reasoning about randomly distributed events is counter-intuitive and we should

what do you think the "it" is that you're missing? the thesis is pretty simple: reasoning about randomly distributed events is counter-intuitive and we should not use mathematical models to convince ourselves that low probability/high impact events are somehow mitigated because they disappear in statistics when you smooth out the outliers.