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You don't seem to know what scientific means, do you?
by anton1989 10y ago
You don't seem to know what scientific means, do you?
- VodkaHaze 10y agoAre his theories formulated in a rigidly defined and testable manner, and empirically tested? No, they're "rules of thumb". Rules of thumbs can be great to make complex decisions (like in trading, as he does), but coming up with a few rules of thumb and doing well at your job does not warrant his level of confidence in his intellect.
- ricksplat 10y agoAren't rules of thumb in his case the outcome of inductive reasoning based on many observations? Sounds pretty empirical to me. It is a fundamental strength of science that such formulations accept falsifiability - so the fact that his hypotheses/theories/laws don't hold in all cases just means they need to be refined for those cases. It also common scientific practice to accept hypotheses within bounds of probability.
- VodkaHaze 10y agoThe wildest conspiracy theories you've heard are also "the outcome of inductive reasoning based on many observations". Empirical testing is supposed to be statistical, not subject to human bias.
- ricksplat 10y agoWell no, because they are neither falsifiable nor independently verifiable. Taleb proposes hypotheses based on openly available information and he provides enough information to replicate his findings.