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Tesla sold 50 000 cars last year, and have a $28bn market cap. Ford sold 6 million vehicles, had the fourth best selling car in the world (the Focus), and have

Tesla sold 50 000 cars last year, and have a $28bn market cap. Ford sold 6 million vehicles, had the fourth best selling car in the world (the Focus), and have a market cap of $51bn. So Tesla:Ford ratio on market cap is 1:2, but on sales numbers it's 1:100. Granted, the Model S is more expensive than an average Ford, so let's call it 1:50. How is that undervalued? It looks pretty darned overvalued to me.

swyman 10y ago
Difference in company maturity, same reason startups get valued at higher multiples than public companies. Everyone knows what Ford is and for the most part doesn't think they have much of a shot to make enough significant changes to, say, 100x their revenue within 5 years. Tesla, on the other hand, has about as good of a shot at doing that as any public company, so to some investors its worth pricing that growth opportunity in.
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  >Everyone knows what Ford is and for the most part doesn't think they have much of a shot to make enough significant changes to, say, 100x their revenue within 5 years You'd have to be insane to believe that Tesla is going to be making $400BB within 5 years. Yes, there's some fudge factor when trying to estimate what a company like Tesla might look like in the future, but it still should be based on potential financials.
  - swyman 10y ago
    "Should" is a personal normative statement. The very nature of the market is that my "should" is different from your "should", which is also different from everyone else's. You are free to disagree with anyone and everyone, but the price is the price is the price, defined only by the prevailing "should"s of the last two people who came close enough to agreeing on the current price to actually make a transaction. In fact, the only reason that transaction went through is because those two "should"s fundamentally disagreed on the future price, or they wouldn't have taken opposite sides on that transaction.
gutnor 10y ago
> How is that undervalued? If you believe that electric and autonomous car is the future and that Tesla will dominate the electric and autonomous car market, especially starting in 2020 already selling 1 million car a year with 2 new even more affordable models ? Not saying that is realistic, but if you are buying the stock of the global number 1 car maker of 2030, that is probably a good deal.

swyman 10y ago

Difference in company maturity, same reason startups get valued at higher multiples than public companies. Everyone knows what Ford is and for the most part doesn't think they have much of a shot to make enough significant changes to, say, 100x their revenue within 5 years. Tesla, on the other hand, has about as good of a shot at doing that as any public company, so to some investors its worth pricing that growth opportunity in.

forgetsusername 10y ago
>Everyone knows what Ford is and for the most part doesn't think they have much of a shot to make enough significant changes to, say, 100x their revenue within 5 years You'd have to be insane to believe that Tesla is going to be making $400BB within 5 years. Yes, there's some fudge factor when trying to estimate what a company like Tesla might look like in the future, but it still should be based on potential financials.
- swyman 10y ago
  "Should" is a personal normative statement. The very nature of the market is that my "should" is different from your "should", which is also different from everyone else's. You are free to disagree with anyone and everyone, but the price is the price is the price, defined only by the prevailing "should"s of the last two people who came close enough to agreeing on the current price to actually make a transaction. In fact, the only reason that transaction went through is because those two "should"s fundamentally disagreed on the future price, or they wouldn't have taken opposite sides on that transaction.

gutnor 10y ago

> How is that undervalued? If you believe that electric and autonomous car is the future and that Tesla will dominate the electric and autonomous car market, especially starting in 2020 already selling 1 million car a year with 2 new even more affordable models ? Not saying that is realistic, but if you are buying the stock of the global number 1 car maker of 2030, that is probably a good deal.