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I would think more of these predictions if they came attached to some concrete goals. Could we have a list of specific tasks that will be accomplished by the ma
by mechanical_fish 19y ago
I would think more of these predictions if they came attached to some concrete goals. Could we have a list of specific tasks that will be accomplished by the machines in 2029? "Win the world Go championship", perhaps? "Produce a Russian-to-English translation of Crime and Punishment that passes the Turing test?" "Provide better color commentary than the average Fox Sports announcer?" That should be an easy one, but I'm still not betting on the machine.
And I marvel at the tremendous effectiveness of the typical futurist trick: make the banal sound incredible and then predict it:
"We'll have intelligent nanobots go into our brains through the capillaries and interact directly with our biological neurons," he told BBC News.
I've got those. They're called cells. I sneeze billions of them out every day.
I suppose you might ask whether it's fair to call my white blood cells "intelligent"... but they do have autonomous capabilities, and they do self-organize via a body-wide signaling network. They're pretty talented. I challenge you to produce a device on the same scale that is significantly more intelligent... by 2029.
- dejb 19y agoWell I don't think any of your current cells can network your brain to say a google search by thought alone. To say the capacity for rapid brain-digital interfacing wouldn't have an impact on intelligence would be like saying the internet is unlikely to effect society. Not saying I subscribe to the guy's timetable though. I agree about the goal part. I'd say GO would be gone way before then anyway. It'll take a new algorithm and some more computer power but not general intelligence. The actual Turing Test is always a good one, but if they passed it computers would be way more intelligent than us to beat us at our own game.