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My mom is sick, so I've been hanging around her house to sit with her. She has some 5-10 year old magazines, including some of one of my favorites The New York
by jimhefferon 10y ago
My mom is sick, so I've been hanging around her house to sit with her. She has some 5-10 year old magazines, including some of one of my favorites The New Yorker. I like the intelligence of the commentators and I feel that they often put into words things that I vaguely feel.
I was stuck reading them (or else: Fox News and the Catholic channel). Boy, they get just about every prediction wrong. It was shocking.
Makes me doubt we do much better than people in the past.
- nl 10y agoWe can do better, but it isn't expertise that is the difference. It's worth taking a look at the Good Judgement Project and their success at making forecasts. http://www.nesta.org.uk/sites/default/files/1502_working_paper_-_prediction.pdf http://www.nesta.org.uk/sites/default/files/1502_working_pap... is a good overview.