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> "Experts" generally are very good at estimating the likelihood of some of these assumptions changing. Is that really true? I'm dubious, and I'm curious whet

• nl 10y ago
  Is that really true? I think so. For example, in fields relying on scientific progress, a scientist working in the field is generally fairly accurate in predicting the likely progress in their exact field over the next couple of years. For example in materials science the researchers are relatively good at estimating what progress will be made. There was an IARPA program around estimating scientific progress that may have done some empirical studies. Also, I'm not entirely clear what you mean by "some". Do you mean "some kinds of assumptions" or "some number of assumptions? I mean they are good at estimating the likelihood of specific estimates changing.
• erikpukinskis 10y ago
  If I had to hazard a guess, based on the venue, you probably have very concrete notions about what words mean. You hold experts to those definitions, even if they don't share them, which makes their statements seem wrong. In fact they're using a more, for lack of a better word, "parochial" dialect and in that language their predictions are useful predictors for their clients. They don't really think they're making the same claims you think they are. Or not, I don't know. I'm not you.