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It seems silly to expect that the experts never get anything wrong. It even seems silly to expect that they don't get any of the big questions wrong. The real q
by YuriNiyazov 10y ago
It seems silly to expect that the experts never get anything wrong. It even seems silly to expect that they don't get any of the big questions wrong. The real question is whether the ratio (or some other function) of wrong predictions to right predictions, suitably weighted by their strength and complexity, is decreasing.
- jimhefferon 10y agoMy mom is sick, so I've been hanging around her house to sit with her. She has some 5-10 year old magazines, including some of one of my favorites The New Yorker. I like the intelligence of the commentators and I feel that they often put into words things that I vaguely feel. I was stuck reading them (or else: Fox News and the Catholic channel). Boy, they get just about every prediction wrong. It was shocking. Makes me doubt we do much better than people in the past.
- nl 10y agoWe can do better, but it isn't expertise that is the difference. It's worth taking a look at the Good Judgement Project and their success at making forecasts. http://www.nesta.org.uk/sites/default/files/1502_working_paper_-_prediction.pdf http://www.nesta.org.uk/sites/default/files/1502_working_pap... is a good overview.