3 ms·

> It’s all the newcomers, some say. They’re driving prices up and they’re pushing long-time residents out. Well, there has been a massive influx of investment

> It’s all the newcomers, some say. They’re driving prices up and they’re pushing long-time residents out. Well, there has been a massive influx of investment [1] in the Portland housing market, driving up overall prices. While this wouldn't be happening if people didn't want to move to Portland, simply blaming it on 'Californians' seems to be a bit naive. [1] http://invw.org/2015/04/17/portland-cash-housing/ http://invw.org/2015/04/17/portland-cash-housing/

erispoe 10y ago
The fundamentals that create an opportunity for speculative investment is a lack of supply and an excess of demand. It's very rare that investment itself, in a vacuum of demand, will result in a price surge. Sure, it can happen, but the basics is that Portland is attractive and, like San Francisco, does not build enough to support the new demand.
- skybrian 10y ago
  It sounds like you're saying that investment alone doesn't make a bubble. But investment (or speculation) is another kind of demand, and it's well known that speculation can create bubbles when investors predict future demand that turns out not to exist. So I'm not really sure what you're getting at?
  - erispoe 10y ago
    Real demand for housing is here in Portland and in San Francisco. It's not created by real estate speculation. Real people, by the thousands, come to these metro areas, faster than the housing stock grows to accommodate them. Before asking ourselves if price surges are created by the smokes and mirrors of speculation, a second-degree hypothesis, we ought to look at the simpler hypothesis first: is there a real demand for housing? Yes, there is. Is the housing stock growing fast enough to satisfy that demand? No, it is not.
inmyway 10y ago
The cash buyers from SF to Cupertino to Pleasanton are coming from China. Same in Vancouver, for example. Why not do what the new Muslim mayor of London is proposing -- stop the foreign investment property buyers. They're the biggest reason the local population can't afford housing in both the Bay Area and London, even for households with two adults making tech salaries.
- bufordsharkley 10y ago
  This seems a really messy and discriminatory solution when compared to a far more elegant one: a land-value tax, which would reduce the ability for a property to serve as an investment vehicle. CAVEAT: LVT could not be applied unless Prop 13 were first repealed.

erispoe 10y ago

The fundamentals that create an opportunity for speculative investment is a lack of supply and an excess of demand. It's very rare that investment itself, in a vacuum of demand, will result in a price surge. Sure, it can happen, but the basics is that Portland is attractive and, like San Francisco, does not build enough to support the new demand.

skybrian 10y ago
It sounds like you're saying that investment alone doesn't make a bubble. But investment (or speculation) is another kind of demand, and it's well known that speculation can create bubbles when investors predict future demand that turns out not to exist. So I'm not really sure what you're getting at?
- erispoe 10y ago
  Real demand for housing is here in Portland and in San Francisco. It's not created by real estate speculation. Real people, by the thousands, come to these metro areas, faster than the housing stock grows to accommodate them. Before asking ourselves if price surges are created by the smokes and mirrors of speculation, a second-degree hypothesis, we ought to look at the simpler hypothesis first: is there a real demand for housing? Yes, there is. Is the housing stock growing fast enough to satisfy that demand? No, it is not.

inmyway 10y ago

The cash buyers from SF to Cupertino to Pleasanton are coming from China. Same in Vancouver, for example. Why not do what the new Muslim mayor of London is proposing -- stop the foreign investment property buyers. They're the biggest reason the local population can't afford housing in both the Bay Area and London, even for households with two adults making tech salaries.

bufordsharkley 10y ago
This seems a really messy and discriminatory solution when compared to a far more elegant one: a land-value tax, which would reduce the ability for a property to serve as an investment vehicle. CAVEAT: LVT could not be applied unless Prop 13 were first repealed.