11 ms·
the willingness to upgrade your browser is going to be significantly faster as time goes on. You may be right. And then again maybe not. It's going to be fun t
by mechanical_fish 17y ago
the willingness to upgrade your browser is going to be significantly faster as time goes on.
You may be right. And then again maybe not. It's going to be fun to find out!
I would note that IE6 persisted until now not because anyone wanted it to -- Microsoft hates IE6 more than anyone, since every IE6 user is both a support timesink and a potential paid upgrade that hasn't happened yet -- but because it sits in a niche. There are people who bought old machines that haven't worn out yet. And there are businesses that built a bunch of stuff on IE6 and see no reason to upgrade.
And the nature of the universe is: Things diverge over time. (Yet another side effect of the second law of thermodynamics.) The number of niches and their diversity is growing now, and they will continue to grow. In ten years there will still be people, somewhere, running IE6. There will also be people running all sorts of other things: Old iPod Touches running obsolete versions of Mobile Safari, eleven-year-old car navigation systems, smart phones and book readers of every description, obsolete gaming hardware (have you noticed that you can still buy a brand-new Playstation 2, ten years after it launched? Have you considered the implication: There will certainly be many PS3 units in use ten years from today?)
The good news is that, thanks to ubiquitous Internet, companies are increasingly able to force customers to use the latest-and-greatest browser technology by pushing upgrades out over the net from on high. But is (e.g.) Sony really going to officially support the PS3 forever? What about the manufacturers who go bankrupt? And, if the market ends up demanding that manufacturers support multiple decades worth of their legacy hardware, is that really going to tend to encourage innovation in web standards, or is it just going to make such innovation that much more costly to implement, encouraging the tendency to embrace the status quo because it is "good enough"? We'll see.
- rapind 17y agoEverything you say makes sense. Let me rephrase my statement into 2 separate statements then, as I should have initially. 1. Future browser upgrade timelines should not be based on the IE6 fiasco. It's too small a sample size to use as corroborating evidence in these predictions. It may end up being an anomaly. 2. In my own opinion I think the upgrade timeline will grow shorter. I don't have any hard evidence I can cite, it's just my impression as someone who's been involved in web development for the last 12 years or so. The points you mention are all valid, and I'm not saying there won't be new and different pains we'll enjoy ;)