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One thing the article ignores about a bubble popping, saying it's "mostly people who can afford to lose money" and "rich people" is that...rich people, much lik

One thing the article ignores about a bubble popping, saying it's "mostly people who can afford to lose money" and "rich people" is that...rich people, much like everyone don't like to lose money. So in order to preserve capital, they are going to pull their money out of big gainers in the public market to offset any loss from the private market. Not only that but this private equity bubble has made housing prices in some cities absolutely explode. Those will go down too, and many people will be underwater on their $300K studio condos in mid-size cities, or $1M studio condos in larger cities. Then of course you have massive building projects that projected those prices to remain steady flooding the market with supply...who knows when this will hit the fan, but we can all see it coming. But let's face it, there is dumb money in real estate too. I don't think "smart money" is effected by FOMO. When this all happens it certainly hurts the retail investors, pension plans etc. The private market can absolutely act as a contagion to the public markets. I don't think private equity will be the first to go, usually there is some sort of contraction in credit (high yield anyone?) that begins to effect the other markets and it dominoes from there.

ryandamm 10y ago
I dunno, that's a lot of causal links that aren't necessarily backed up by quantitative analysis. I don't think the scale of VC/PE in the tech sector is anywhere near large enough to have macro effects. (Zenefits and Theranos aren't going to move valuation for GE.) Real estate moves locally in sync with the local economy, and the SF Bay Area does see bubble effects in the local housing market... though the dips aren't anywhere near as deep as you think; post-2008/9 implosion, home values took a minor hit then were back to pre-crisis highs within a couple of years. (Source: I was looking to buy a house during that period.) It's popular to predict doom and gloom, and you can show connections between different events... but understanding the actual dynamics is far trickier, and usually way less sexy.
- partiallypro 10y ago
  There's plenty of analysis available, people have been sounding the alarm for the past 6-8 months. Not a bunch of nobodies and doom and gloom blogs either, big money movers have been saying this. If you don't think it only takes one sneeze for an entire market to get the cold, you haven't been paying attention. If VCs are illiquid, and credit markets are illiquid...and there are securities above them that has a valuation based on the premise that there's liquidity in the underlying market...when people pull money out of those top level securities and the underlying market doesn't actually have the money (think ETF-like securities), you're gonna have a bad time. San Francisco is not the only market that's going to be effected in real estate. Austin, Nashville, Seattle, Charlotte; there a lot of mid-level cities that saw explosive growth over the past 6 years because of VC. The rust belt probably won't be effected like it was in 2008, because it hasn't moved as explosively. It won't be a 2008 style crisis, it will likely not be so severe, it will probably be more like a 2000-lite. It will probably rebound relatively quickly too, that's perfectly normal, it's a sling shot effect due to inventory depletion after a short period. It's just a market correction. Don't fear the correction, it's necessary; and it's how the smart money gets in cheaper with dollar cost averaging.
  - coolgeek 10y ago
    > Not a bunch of nobodies and doom and gloom blogs either, big money movers have been saying this Could you provide some names of these big money movers?
    - partiallypro 10y ago
      Bill Gross, Carl Icahn, Mark Kiesel, to name a few

ryandamm 10y ago

I dunno, that's a lot of causal links that aren't necessarily backed up by quantitative analysis. I don't think the scale of VC/PE in the tech sector is anywhere near large enough to have macro effects. (Zenefits and Theranos aren't going to move valuation for GE.) Real estate moves locally in sync with the local economy, and the SF Bay Area does see bubble effects in the local housing market... though the dips aren't anywhere near as deep as you think; post-2008/9 implosion, home values took a minor hit then were back to pre-crisis highs within a couple of years. (Source: I was looking to buy a house during that period.) It's popular to predict doom and gloom, and you can show connections between different events... but understanding the actual dynamics is far trickier, and usually way less sexy.

partiallypro 10y ago
There's plenty of analysis available, people have been sounding the alarm for the past 6-8 months. Not a bunch of nobodies and doom and gloom blogs either, big money movers have been saying this. If you don't think it only takes one sneeze for an entire market to get the cold, you haven't been paying attention. If VCs are illiquid, and credit markets are illiquid...and there are securities above them that has a valuation based on the premise that there's liquidity in the underlying market...when people pull money out of those top level securities and the underlying market doesn't actually have the money (think ETF-like securities), you're gonna have a bad time. San Francisco is not the only market that's going to be effected in real estate. Austin, Nashville, Seattle, Charlotte; there a lot of mid-level cities that saw explosive growth over the past 6 years because of VC. The rust belt probably won't be effected like it was in 2008, because it hasn't moved as explosively. It won't be a 2008 style crisis, it will likely not be so severe, it will probably be more like a 2000-lite. It will probably rebound relatively quickly too, that's perfectly normal, it's a sling shot effect due to inventory depletion after a short period. It's just a market correction. Don't fear the correction, it's necessary; and it's how the smart money gets in cheaper with dollar cost averaging.
- coolgeek 10y ago
  > Not a bunch of nobodies and doom and gloom blogs either, big money movers have been saying this Could you provide some names of these big money movers?
  - partiallypro 10y ago
    Bill Gross, Carl Icahn, Mark Kiesel, to name a few