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Dumb money inflating valuations is pretty much the definition of a bubble. Another interesting tidbit: over 200 private tech terms are currently considered unic
by daveguy 10y ago
Dumb money inflating valuations is pretty much the definition of a bubble. Another interesting tidbit: over 200 private tech terms are currently considered unicorns.
200 of what is supposed to be a rare phenomenon.
When the NYT starts talking about it you know the structure of the bubble is weak. Stories like this only popped up in the months before the housing crash. Prior to that all the stories were all about what a great investment real estate is.
Bubbles are odd things though, it could keep going until there are 400 unicorns, but I doubt it.
- paavokoya 10y ago“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
- daveguy 10y agoI agree 100%! That's why I said the bubble could continue until there are 400 unicorns (or just 50 more), regargless a continuation would exhaust my solvency. I wouldn't bet against it because I don't know if it will pop tomorrow or a year from now or later, but I am almost certain we are in somewhere in the top 25% of a bubble. The breathless arguments that this will continue indefinitely has slowed.
- dnautics 10y agoIf we're in the top 25% of a bubble you should be able to calculate an upper limit to when it will pop. If you say you don't know when it will pop that means you don't know how close we are to the end because these things are characterized by measurable growth dynamics and spend very little time at the top.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- morgante 10y ago> When the NYT starts talking about it you know the structure of the bubble is weak. The NYT (together with all media) has been saying there's a bubble for years. They've written nearly 200 articles about this bubble between 2008 and 2015. For example: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/a-silicon-bubble-shows-signs-of-reinflating/ http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/a-silicon-bubble-show... There will always be naysayers. Plenty of people thought the notion of Facebook being worth even $50bn was ludicrous. Bubbles exist, but so does growth. It's all but impossible to differentiate the two until after the fact. That being said, we probably are in something of a bubble.
- cardiffspaceman 10y agoI always say that the crash comes after the last skeptic buys in. I honestly don't have any anecdotes to specifically back that up, but plenty of people at cocktail parties have nodded in agreement.
- thaumasiotes 10y agoThis would immediately imply that no one ever gets rich shorting the crash.
- cardiffspaceman 10y agoBecause no skeptics would be short when the crash came.
- ktRolster 10y agoBut of course, some people do make money in the crashes. John Paulson made billions in the 2008 crash. Mark Cuban at least forsaw the .com bomb.