3 ms·

How likely do you think it is that a world war will break out? What do you think people would have said in 1913? What about 1938? (Lest you think this is some

by to3m 10y ago

How likely do you think it is that a world war will break out? What do you think people would have said in 1913? What about 1938? (Lest you think this is some rhetorical dogwhistle shit: don't worry. It isn't. Just an open question.)

civilian 10y ago
WW1 was truly unexpected-- all of the mutual alliances and it all being caused by a random assassination. WW2 was more expected. And, idk, I don't have the benefit of hindsight, but I really doubt a world war in which the US is involved will break out this decade. Like, with who? Nukes & M.A.D. have still changed the equation and made a conventional-weapons world war unreasonable.
- MichaelGG 10y ago
  >WW1 was truly unexpected Really? I read that Germany had been planning and not so secretly saying they were planning on taking France for years before. (Book, Guns of August, iirc).
- toyg 10y ago
  WW1 was fully expected, what was unexpected was the size and difficulty of it. All involved countries had long-standing beef, but nobody thought they'd really try to settle it at the same time and so cruelly. Treaties and alliances are just pieces of paper (as Molotov-Ribbentropp demonstrated later), what really triggered conflict was a belief that "the time had come" to finally employ all those wonderful toys built up over 30 years of relative peace and technological advance around Europe (a continent routinely ravaged by frequent skirmishes up until then). They all thought they would have been winners in a few months, ended up stuck in trenches with brutal casualties, and conflict snowballed at the fringes.
falsedan 10y ago
> How likely do you think it is that a world war will break out? 0% What has that to do with country piles? Is this what the hip young kids do nowadays, dubstep raves at the old manor?

3 ms·

How likely do you think it is that a world war will break out? What do you think people would have said in 1913? What about 1938? (Lest you think this is some

by to3m 10y ago

civilian 10y ago
WW1 was truly unexpected-- all of the mutual alliances and it all being caused by a random assassination. WW2 was more expected. And, idk, I don't have the benefit of hindsight, but I really doubt a world war in which the US is involved will break out this decade. Like, with who? Nukes & M.A.D. have still changed the equation and made a conventional-weapons world war unreasonable.
- MichaelGG 10y ago
  >WW1 was truly unexpected Really? I read that Germany had been planning and not so secretly saying they were planning on taking France for years before. (Book, Guns of August, iirc).
- toyg 10y ago
  WW1 was fully expected, what was unexpected was the size and difficulty of it. All involved countries had long-standing beef, but nobody thought they'd really try to settle it at the same time and so cruelly. Treaties and alliances are just pieces of paper (as Molotov-Ribbentropp demonstrated later), what really triggered conflict was a belief that "the time had come" to finally employ all those wonderful toys built up over 30 years of relative peace and technological advance around Europe (a continent routinely ravaged by frequent skirmishes up until then). They all thought they would have been winners in a few months, ended up stuck in trenches with brutal casualties, and conflict snowballed at the fringes.
falsedan 10y ago
> How likely do you think it is that a world war will break out? 0% What has that to do with country piles? Is this what the hip young kids do nowadays, dubstep raves at the old manor?